기업가치 평가에서 매출액 정보의 역할 (The role of revenue in firm valuation)

서지정보

· 발행기관 : 한국기업경영학회
· 수록지 정보 : 기업경영연구 / 22권 / 6호 / 151 ~ 165페이지
· 저자명 : 권대현, 박진하

초록

회계이익이 기업가치 평가에 있어서 핵심적인 정보로서의 역할을 해 온 것은 사실이지만, 기업경영환경 및 회계제도 등의 변화에 기인하여 기업가치 평가에서 회계이익의 가치관련성이 감소하고 있다는 논의들이 존재한다. 이와 관련하여 회계이익 이외에 성과측정지표를 찾고자 하는 노력이 있어 왔으며, 이중 매출액의 경우 회계이익의 구성 요소 중 하나이지만 회계이익과는 다른 차별적인 정보적 특성으로 인하여 그 정보적 중요성이 더욱 부각되고 있다. 본 연구는 매출액의 이러한 차별적 특성에 주목하여 기업가치 평가 모형을 이용, 매출액이 회계이익 대비 증분적인 정보성(informativeness)이 있는지 여부에 대해 검증한다. 검증결과 주가모형 그리고 주식수익률 모형을 이용한 분석 모두에서 매출액의 증분적 가치관련성이 존재한다는 결과가 도출되었다. 다음으로 산업별로 매출액의 가치관련성을 살펴본 결과 위의 결과가 산업별로 차이가 있음이 관찰되었다. 특징적으로, 첫째, ‘제조업’의 경우 분석모형에 관계없이 매출액의 가치관련성이 보고되었으며, 둘째, 선행연구에서 보고된 바와 같이 ‘전문, 과학 및 기술 서비스업’에서도 매출액의 가치관련성이 있는 것으로 나타났다. 본 연구의 결과는 시장이 기업의 가치를 평가함에 있어서 회계이익 뿐만 아니라, 회계이익의 요소 중 하나인 매출액 정보도 반영하고 있음을 의미한다.

영어초록

This study examines whether revenue may contain the incremental informativeness beyond earnings in firm valuation. While earnings information has traditionally been important in equity valuation, research on valuation suggests that the value-relevance of earnings has declined over time. Revenue may, however, have information on future earnings and cash flows that is lost when it is aggregated with gains, losses, and expenses into earnings (Chandra and Ro, 2008). In fact, revenue disclosures and forecasts have increased dramatically, and it is now difficult to find an earnings announcement that is not accompanied by a revenue announcement (Edmonds et al., 2013). Earnings is correlated with revenue but it conveys distinct signals of information on firm performance (Jegadeesh and Livnat, 2006). In addition, while earnings, by definition, is a function of revenue and expenses, the former is perceived less noisy and difficult to manipulate. Therefore, as an indicator of persistence and future performance, the role of revenue in firm valuation is receiving attention. In response, researchers have aimed to find alternative accounting measures that reflect firms’ value, and have turned their interest to revenue which is perceived as a key value driver.
The literature related to informativeness of revenue usually focuses on analysts’ forecasts. Mest and Plummer(2003) provide evidence that the extent of analysts forecast bias is greater with respect to earnings forecasts than that with respect to sales forecasts. Jegadeesh and Livnat(2006) show that stock prices and analysts’’ forecasts adjust to the information conveyed by revenue over an extended period of approximately six months after quarterly earnings announcements. Rees and Sivaramakrishnan(2007) find significant market penalty for missing analysts’’ revenue forecasts, and further suggest that the market response for missing earnings forecasts is only marginal when revenue forecasts are met. Keung(2010) documents evidence that specific analysts’’ forecasts beyond earnings numbers can be meaningful and supply incremental information to the market. In addition, Ertimur et al.(2003) show that the market reaction to revenue surprises over the years 1996 to 2001 is greater than to expense surprises and that the differential price reaction is associated with relative persistence. Ghosh et al.(2005) find that for a subsample of firms with sustained earnings increases over a five-year period, subgroups with sustained revenue growth are assigned higher earnings response coefficients and exhibit higher earnings persistence and lower susceptibility to earnings management.
These extant research suggests revenue to have incremental value relevance beyond earnings. However, there is little study on value relevance of revenue except Chandra and Ro(2008). Chandar and Ro(2008) examine the role of revenue in valuing firms beyond earnings and provide evidence that revenue is relevant. Expanding this study, this paper investigates whether revenue is generally value-relevant in Korea. The sample of this study consists of firm’s annual observation, while Chandra and Ro(2008) use firm-quarter observation. This paper also examines hypotheses using the Ohlson’s price model, as well as return model, whereas Chandra and Ro(2008) employ return model only.
Our sample consists of 21,409 firm-year observations for the period 1991-2012. All firms are listed on the Korea Exchange. Using this sample, the paper finds that revenue is generally value-relevant as reported in US based studies. This implies that revenue plays a role in equity valuation. Furthermore, our findings suggest that the value-relevance of revenue is different according to the industry in which the firm belongs to.
This study contributes to expanding the domestic study on the informativeness of revenue whose subject has not been actively researched. We expect that this study can promote the decomposition of earnings and revenue in the related research.

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