실업률과 경제성장률간의 관계의 분석 : 지역별 특징을 중심으로 (Analysis of the relationship between unemployment rate and economic growth rate in Korea: Focused on regional characteristics.)

서지정보

· 발행기관 : 한국질서경제학회
· 수록지 정보 : 질서경제저널 / 21권 / 1호 / 143 ~ 164페이지
· 저자명 : 김준, 김명준

초록

본 연구는 한국의 지역 실업률과 지역내산출량 간의 관계를 분석함으로써 정부가 효율적 정책을 수립하는데 있어 사전적 정보를 제공하고자 함에 연구의 목적이 있다. 실업률과 산출량 간의 음의 관계에 있음은 오쿤의 경험 법칙으로 잘 알려져 있으며, 이들 관계를 분석하기 위해 갭 모형과 차분 모형을 사용하였다. 두 모형 모두 전 지역에서 실업률과 산출량 간의 음의 관계가 유지되는 것을 확인할 수 있었다. 오쿤 계수의 크기는 각 지역에 따라 상이한 값을 가지는 것을 확인 하였으며, 이는 각 지역의 산업적 또는 지역적 차이로 기인한 것으로 판단된다. 따라서 경제 활성화를 위한 정부 정책은 지역별로 상이한 실업률과 산출량의 관계를 고려하여 시행되어져야 할 것이다.

영어초록

The purpose of this study is to analyze the relationship between regional unemployment rate and regional productivity in Korea during 1989-2014. t is well known that there is a stable negative relationship between unemployment rates and output. Okun (1962) showed that the output was decreased about 3 percentage points when the unemployment rate was increased about 1 percentage point, using the US unemployment rate and output data. This is known as Okun's law. Since the study by Okun, many previous studies have confirmed whether the stable negative relationship between unemployment rate and output is maintained for the United States and other countries. However, the absolute value of the Okun’s coefficient have different values depending on the different countries and on the different time periods (Moosa, 1997; Lee, 2000; Harris and Silverstone, 2001; Silvapulle et al., 2004 Adanu, 2005, Durech et al, 2014). In addition, the absolute value of the Okun's coefficient can vary depending on the estimation model (Prachowny, 1993; Arttfield and Silverstone, 1997).
To analyze the relationship between the changes in the unemployment rate and economic growth rates by region, we used the first differenced model and the gap model. In both models, the negative relationship between unemployment rate and economic growth rate is maintained for all regions. However, the absolute value of the Okun’s coefficients are different by region. These results are partly explained by the regional differences in productivity growth. Therefore, traditional management policies based on aggregate demand and supply should be combined with regional characteristics.
In additionary, we compare the estimated Okun's coefficients and three macroeconomic variables, which are average GRDP growth rate, average economic activity population growth rate, and average unemployment rate, to confirm which macroeconomic variables are related with the estimated Okun's coefficients. We also find that they are all in the positive relationship.

참고자료

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