현실주의로 본 북한의 향후 정책방향

소개

외교정책론 레포트입니다. 향 후 북한의 정책에 대해 현실주의적 입장에서 정리하였습니다.
그 외 미국,중국등의 정책방향도 포함하였습니다.

목차

목차

1. 들어가는 말·········································································································

2. 북한의 세습과정································································································

1) 김정은의 세습과정······························································································
2) 후계자의 요건·····································································································
3) 후계자의 유일한 영도체제 확립············································································

3. 현실주의 시각에서 국제흐름 파악·········································································

1) 중국의 대북정책·································································································
2) 북한의 대남정책·······························································································
① 공세적 대남노선·······························································································
② 대남유화노선·······························································································
③ 종합·······························································································
3) 한국의 대북정책···························································································
① 김대중 정부와 이명박 정부의 대북정책 비교·······················································
② 김대중 정부와 이명박 정부 때의 북한의 대남정책 비교····································

4. 결론·········································································································

※참고자료·········································································································

※참고문헌·········································································································

본문내용

2) 북한의 대남정책
북한의 대남전략은 한국정부의 대북성향에 따라 그 전략의 특징이 달라졌는데, 크게 두가지로 나누어 볼 수 있다. 지금부터 그 두 가지 성향에 대해 분석하겠다.

① 공세적 대남노선

2000년 6.15남북공동선언 이전까지의 북한의 대남전략전술은 전반적으로 ‘공세적 대남노선’이었다고 평가된다. 이는 1990년대 초 전 세계 사회주의권 몰락과 1994년 김일성 사망에 따른 체제위기를 극복하고 우리식 사회주의를 고수했다는 김정일 정권의 자신감의 표현이며 한편으로는 극심한 경제난 등 체제위기를 무마할 수 있는 유용한 카드가 바로 공세적인 대남노선 뿐이라는 절박함으로도 표현할 수 있다. 북한의 이러한 공세적 대남노선은 한반도에 지속적인 전쟁분위기를 고조시킴으로써 내부적으로 점증하고 있는 북한주민의 불만과 갈등을 무마시켜 체제결속을 기할 수 있고,또한 한국 및 국제사회를 긴장시켜 북한이 의도하는 데로 대남-대외정책을 구사할 수 있기 때문으로 파악된다. 이를 분석해보면 다음과 같다.
첫째, 한국정부 배제노선을 견지한다. 북한은 한국정부와는 당국자간 공식대화를 거부하고 한국정부를 국내외적으로 고립화시키기 위한 한국정부 배제노선을 견지하였다.
둘째,당국-민간 분리전술을 강화한다. 북한은 한국정부와의 대화나 접촉을 철저히 배제하면서도 경제적 이득이나 대남전략적 관점에서 필요하다고 판단되면 학술,문화,언론,종교 및 경제 교류라는 미명하에 민간차원의 선택적 접촉을 지속적으로 전개하는 전술을 추구한다.셋째 정교한 대남심리전 공작을 지속한다. 북한은 우리 내부의 국론분열과 사회교란을 통한 소위 ‘혁명의 주객관적 상황’을 조성시키기 위해 대남심리전 공세를 한층 정교화하고 강화시켰다. 북한은 기본의 선동수단인 대남방송매체와 전단살포를 통해 대남 심리전 공세를 본격화 시켰다. 넷째 대남 군사위협공세-무력도발 자행과 대남간첩공작의 지속적으로 전개한다. 북한정권은 극심한 경제난에도 불구하고 군사력 증강에 계속 박차를 가하며 전쟁불사 의지 천명등 지속적으로 대남군사위협 공세를 지속적으로 자행하고 대남간첩공작을 지속적으로 자행한다. 대표적 사례로는 남북해군이 무력 충돌한 이른바 서해안교전사태를 유발시킨 것이다.

참고자료

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