아시아 ‧ 태평양 지역 경제통합과 아세안의 중심성 (Asia-Pacific Region's economic integration and the ASEAN centrality)

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· 저자명 : 김석수

초록

The paper discusses on a related important development affecting ASEAN and Asia-Pacific Region's economic integration: the TPP agreement. The TPP was signed in 2005 by Singapore, Brunei, New Zealand and Chile; but Vietnam, Malaysia, Australia, Peru, the USA, Mexico, Canada and Japan are now negotiating accession. It too is premised on the addition of an Investment Chapter, with investor-State arbitration provisions also proving to be contentious.
Two large regional economic arrangements are currently vying each other in the Asia-Pacific region: the US-led TPP(Trans-Pacific Partnership) and the ASEAN-centered RCEP (Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership). The TPP pursues a high-standard agreement, while the negotiating objective of the RCEP is modest, focusing on tariff cuts with flexibility. Whether the two competing trade blocs will converge into a region-wide FTA, or will become mutually exclusive will determine the future of trading architecture in the Asia Pacific. Among the two possible scenarios, however, the fragmented scenario is more likely. This will cause huge inefficiency cost to the business sector, and undesirable political tension between the two superpowers.
To avoid this scenario, countries participating in both the TPP and RCEP need to put greater efforts to make the frameworks of the two FTAs become similar, keeping in mind a possibile synthesis in the future. ASEAN countries should also assume an active role in keeping up with their pledge of “the ASEAN centrality,” since a fragmented scenario would run counter to the concept and is eventually detrimental to the ASEAN community. Rivalry between the U.S. and China might become the major determinant in shaping the future of regional economic architecture. The two powers should demonstrate their political leadership to pave the way for the desirable institution in the Asia-Pacific region

영어초록

The paper discusses on a related important development affecting ASEAN and Asia-Pacific Region's economic integration: the TPP agreement. The TPP was signed in 2005 by Singapore, Brunei, New Zealand and Chile; but Vietnam, Malaysia, Australia, Peru, the USA, Mexico, Canada and Japan are now negotiating accession. It too is premised on the addition of an Investment Chapter, with investor-State arbitration provisions also proving to be contentious.
Two large regional economic arrangements are currently vying each other in the Asia-Pacific region: the US-led TPP(Trans-Pacific Partnership) and the ASEAN-centered RCEP (Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership). The TPP pursues a high-standard agreement, while the negotiating objective of the RCEP is modest, focusing on tariff cuts with flexibility. Whether the two competing trade blocs will converge into a region-wide FTA, or will become mutually exclusive will determine the future of trading architecture in the Asia Pacific. Among the two possible scenarios, however, the fragmented scenario is more likely. This will cause huge inefficiency cost to the business sector, and undesirable political tension between the two superpowers.
To avoid this scenario, countries participating in both the TPP and RCEP need to put greater efforts to make the frameworks of the two FTAs become similar, keeping in mind a possibile synthesis in the future. ASEAN countries should also assume an active role in keeping up with their pledge of “the ASEAN centrality,” since a fragmented scenario would run counter to the concept and is eventually detrimental to the ASEAN community. Rivalry between the U.S. and China might become the major determinant in shaping the future of regional economic architecture. The two powers should demonstrate their political leadership to pave the way for the desirable institution in the Asia-Pacific region

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