성장 없는 고용: 7개 국가의 비교 연구 (Growthless Jobs: A Comparative Analysis of Seven Countries)

서지정보

· 발행기관 : 한국질서경제학회
· 수록지 정보 : 질서경제저널 / 20권 / 2호 / 131 ~ 154페이지
· 저자명 : 김준

초록

글로벌 금융위기 이전 2000년대 초․중반의 세계 경제 대 호황기는 고용 증가에 비해 경제성장의 속도가 훨씬 높게 나타난 ‘고용 없는 성장’의 시대였다. 반면 글로벌 금융위기의 충격이 어느 정도 마무리된 2010년대에는 경제성장은 한 단계 낮아졌지만 고용 상황은 오히려 양호한 이른바 ‘성장 없는 고용’ 현상이 나타나고 있다.
본 논문은 이와 같은 배경 하에, 우선 글로벌 금융위기를 전후하여 경제성장과 고용 간의 관계가 ‘고용 없는 성장’에서 ‘성장 없는 고용’으로 변화한 사실을 검증하였다. 이를 위해 성장에 대한 고용의 탄력성 및 취업자 1인당 노동생산성 증가율 등 두 검증 지표를 정립한 후, 세계 주요 7개 국가에 적용하였다. 다음으로 글로벌 금융위기 이후 나타난 ‘성장 없는 고용’ 현상의 원인을 분석하였다. 여기에는 전 세계적인 공통 요인과 개별 국가적 요인을 두루 살펴 본 후, 한국 고유의 요인도 분석하였다. 마지막으로 앞의 분석 결과를 바탕으로 세계와 한국 경제의 미래에 대한 전망을 제시하였다. 이에는 우리나라 고용 정책에 대한 시사점도 포함하였다.
본 논문의 분석 결과, 글로벌 금융위기 이후 2011～2015년 기간에는 세계 주요 7개 국가 중 중국을 제외한 모든 국가에서 정도의 차이는 있지만 동시다발적으로 ‘성장 없는 고용’ 현상이 일어난 사실을 확인할 수 있었다. 그 원인으로는 세계 교역의 둔화와 난민 유입의 급증 등 몇 가지 세계 및 개별 국가적 요인들을 찾을 수 있었다. 아울러 은퇴연령층과 노년층, 그리고 여성의 노동공급 증가 등과 같은 몇몇 한국적 요인들도 찾을 수 있었다.
이상의 논의를 종합해 볼 때, 세계와 우리나라에서 ‘성장 없는 고용’ 현상은 당분간 지속될 가능성이 크다. 그런데 경제성장 없이 고용의 증가가 장기적으로 이어지기는 어렵다. ‘성장 없는 고용’은 생산성 하락과 경쟁력 약화로 이어져, 결국 세계와 우리 경제는 장기 저성장으로 쇠락하고 고용 흡수력도 떨어지는 ‘고용 없는 저성장’의 악순환에 직면하게 될 것이다. 다행히 지금처럼 세계 경제가 예상보다 더 일찍 살아나고 또 고용의 양적․질적 개선 정책이 더해진다면, 우리 경제에도 긍정적인 효과가 있기를 기대할 수 있을 것이다.

영어초록

The world economy has changed sharply after the 2008 Global Financial Crisis. In the pre-Global Financial Crisis era, international trade since the 1990s exhibited an unprecedently high growth, going through the expansion of the global value chains. But in the post-Global Financial Crisis era, international trade has contracted with the rise of protectionism.
The pre-Global Financial Crisis era during 2000~2007 period is an age of ‘jobless growth,’ which means that economic growth rate is relatively higher than the increase rate of employment. In contrast, the post-Global Financial Crisis era during 2011~2015 period is an age of ‘growthless jobs,’ which mean that the increase rate of employment is relatively higher than economic growth rate.
This paper investigates the appearance and the causes of ‘growthless jobs’ in world economy after the 2008 Global Financial Crisis. So it analyzes the transition of world economy from ‘jobless growth’ in the pre-Global Financial Crisis era to ‘growthless jobs’ in the post-Global Financial Crisis era. World economy is represented by seven countries which include five big economies and two emerging economies. They are United States of America, China, Japan, United Kingdom, Germany, Korea, and Taiwan. And it infers the causes of the transition from ‘jobless growth’ in the pre-Global Financial Crisis era to ‘growthless jobs’ in the post-Global Financial Crisis era. Finally, based on the findings, this paper provides policy implications.
To compare ‘jobless growth’ in the pre-Global Financial Crisis era during 2000~2007 period with ‘growthless jobs’ in the post-Global Financial Crisis era during 2011~2015 period, two indicators are used. One is the elasticity of employment to economic growth, that is a value of the increase rate of employed persons denominated by economic growth rate. If the elasticity of employment to economic growth in the post-Global Financial Crisis era is higher than in the pre-Global Financial Crisis era, we can confirm that there is a change from ‘jobless growth’ to ‘growthless jobs.’ Another indicator is the increase rate of value-added labor productivity per employed person, that is approximated by a subtraction of the increase rate of employed persons from economic growth rate. If the increase rate of labor productivity in the post-Global Financial Crisis era is lower than in the pre-Global Financial Crisis era, we can also confirm that there is a change from ‘jobless growth’ to ‘growthless jobs.’ According to the analysis, five economies including Korea, U.S.A., Japan, United Kingdom, and Taiwan reveal robust changes from ‘jobless growth’ to ‘growthless jobs.’ Germany reveals a weak change. But in case of China, the outcomes are contradictory. So we can conclude that world economy except China has changed from ‘jobless growth’ in the pre-Global Financial Crisis era to ‘growthless jobs’ in the post-Global Financial Crisis era.
What are the causes of ‘growthless jobs’ after the 2008 Global Financial Crisis? Some world-wide explanations are plausible. First, because of increase in economic uncertainty, maturity of the global value chains, and the rise of protectionism, international trade has contracted severely in the post-Global Financial Crisis era. The contraction of international trade has induced gains from specialization to decrease. Accordingly, economic growth rate of world economy is lower in the post-Global Financial Crisis era than in the pre-Global Financial Crisis era.
Second, there are strengthened financial regulations and weakened credit allocation in advanced economies. Especially in United States of America, the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act has become effective since 2010. In United Kingdom, Stewardship Code was established in 2010. These have strengthened regulations on financial institutions, so their role of credit allocation has weakened. Therefore economic growth rate of advanced economies in the post-Global Financial Crisis era is lower than in the pre-Global Financial Crisis era.
Third, a great many refugees have come into the member states of EU from Africa and the Middle East. Most of refugees are employed as part-time or temporary workers in service sector such as call centers and cleaning business. Accordingly, the increase rate of employed persons in EU is relatively higher in the post-Global Financial Crisis era than in the pre-Global Financial Crisis era.
Besides, non-standard employment relationships, including temporary and part-time employment, have risen since the crisis hit in 2008. In contrast, the drop in total factor productivity growth following the Global Financial Crisis has been widespread and persistent across the world. And that decline has been one of the main contributors to output losses relative to pre-Global Financial Crisis trends.
It seems that there are several causes which are specific to Korea. First, the expansion of capital intensive industries has shrunk, but labor intensive industries have revived after the Global Financial Crisis. Second, the emigration of domestic industries abroad has weakened after the Global Financial Crisis. Third, because the participation rate in labor market of women and old generations increases rapidly, labor supply is more in the post-Global Financial Crisis era than in the pre-Global Financial Crisis era. Forth, demand for service commodities grows very slowly. So in spite of its contributions to employment, service sector contributes little to economic growth.
‘Growthless jobs’ are expected to last for some time. But ‘Growthless jobs’ can never be sustainable. If weak economic growth continues, employment can not but shrink. As a result, ‘Growthless jobs’ will fall in the trap of ‘jobless low-growth’ in the end, which means that both economic growth and employment are depressed together.
If world economy recovers more rapidly than expected, the global value chains and international trade will improve soon. Hence Korean economy will also recover more rapidly than expected. It is crucial to maintain a sound economic structure through continuous structural reforms. In addition to economic growth, employment is a very important issue. Employment is more sensitive to domestic demand than to export. To enlarge employment, better maintenance of domestic demand is desirable.

참고자료

· 없음