산업연관표를 이용한 부문내－부문별 간접세 파급효과 분석 (A Study on the Structural Change of Indirect Tax Repercussion Effects by using the Input-Output Table)

서지정보

· 발행기관 : 한국조세연구포럼
· 수록지 정보 : 조세연구 / 11권 / 2호 / 326 ~ 366페이지
· 저자명 : 박재운, 정희완

초록

본 연구의 목적은 산업연관분석을 이용한 최종수요 항목(소비, 투자, 수출)별 간접세파급효과의 변화추이와 특징을 파악하는 것이다. 분석결과 첫째, 우리나라 제조업부문의 간접세 비중은 1995년 이래로 다소 감소추세이고, 서비스업은 증가추세에 있으며, 경제 내 두 산업의 간접세 비중이 대부분을 차지하고 있다. 둘째, 경제 내 생산유발계수는 제조업, 서비스업, 건설업 순으로 높고, 산업부문별 생산유발계수는 건설업, 제조업 순으로 높다. 셋째, 최종수요 항목별로 보면 간접세의 성장에 가장 중요한 역할을 하는 산업부문은 제조업(주로 수출수요에 의해)과 서비스업(주로 소비수요에 의해)이다. 건설부문의 경우는 투자수요에 의한 영향이 가장 크게 나타났다. 넷째, 경제 내 간접세유발에 의한 전후방연관효과 분석결과 서비스업의 경우 소비수요, 최종수요, 투자수요, 수출수요 순이며, 제조업은 수출수요, 최종수요, 소비수요, 투자수요 순으로 나타났다. 반면에 부문별 전후방연관효과는 서비스업의 경우 투자수요, 수출수요, 최종수요, 소비수요 순이며, 제조업은 소비수요, 수출수요, 최종수요, 투자수요 순으로 산업특성상 그 효과가 차이가 나고 있다. 따라서 경제 내, 산업부문별 간접세유발효과에 영향을 주는 구성항목이 차이가 나므로 각 산업부문별 성장전략 역시 달라져야 함을 시사하고 있다.

영어초록

The objective of this study is to figure out the structural changes of intra-industrial indirect tax repercussion effects, and inter-industrial back- ward and forward linkage effects of indirect tax in Korea by using the Input-Output tables.
The result of analysis can be summarized as follows；First, the indirect tax ratio of manufacturing sector has continuously been on a downward trends since 1995, but service sector has been on an increasing trends since 1995. These two industries sectors accounted for a very high contri- bution in whole economy. Second, the intra-industrial production-induce- ment coefficients have been in order of manufacturing, service, construction sectors, etc. The production-inducement coefficients in each sector have been in order of construction, manufacturing sectors, etc. Third, the most important sectors to the growth contribution of indirect tax repercussion effects are manufacturing sector (mainly influenced by the export demand factor), service sector (mostly influenced consumption demand factor), etc. In the case of construction sector, it has mostly been influenced by the investment demand factor. Fourth, with the result of analyzing forward and backward linkage effects by the intra-industrial indirect tax-inducement coefficients, it has been in order of consumption, final demand, investment, and export demand in the case of service sector.
And in the case of manufacturing sector, it has been in order of export, final demand, consumption, and investment demand. However, with the result of analyzing forward and backward linkage effects by the indirect tax-inducement coefficients in each sector, it has been in order of invest- ment, export, final demand, and consumption demand in the case of service sector. And it has been in order of consumption, export, final demand, and investment demand in the case of the manufacturing sector.
Therefore, it suggests that growth strategies in each sector should be differentiated and geared according to the degree of development and main growth factors of each industry. It is because the difference between configuration items such as consumption, investment, and export demand affects the individual repercussion effects of indirect tax in Korea.

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