교역조건이 무역수지에 미치는 영향: 한국의 예 (Effect of Terms of Trade on Trade Balances: Evidence from Korea)

서지정보

· 발행기관 : 한국무역연구원
· 수록지 정보 : 무역연구 / 10권 / 6호 / 989 ~ 1002페이지
· 저자명 : 김애영

초록

This study examines the impact of terms of trade on the trade balances in Korea usingannual data over the period 1971-2013. The relationship between terms of trade and tradebalances has long received a great deal of attention since the seminal work of Harberger(1950) and Laursen and Metzler (1950). The Harberger-Laursen-Metzler (HLM) effectdescribes that an increase in the terms of trade, which is defined as the ratio of export priceto import price, will improve the trade balance. Besides the terms of trade and tradebalances, the real money supply and the real income are also included in this study. Theempirical analysis is based on the bounds testing approach of cointegration developed byPesaran et al. (2001). The results of the study strongly confirm that terms of trade havepositive effects on trade balance which supports the HLM effect in Korea. According to themonetary approach to the balance of payment, increases in money supply lead to the increasein expenditure which results in deterioration of balance of payments. However, the empiricalresults of this study reveal that increases in money supply improve trade balance while theincreases in real income cause decline in trade balances.

영어초록

This study examines the impact of terms of trade on the trade balances in Korea usingannual data over the period 1971-2013. The relationship between terms of trade and tradebalances has long received a great deal of attention since the seminal work of Harberger(1950) and Laursen and Metzler (1950). The Harberger-Laursen-Metzler (HLM) effectdescribes that an increase in the terms of trade, which is defined as the ratio of export priceto import price, will improve the trade balance. Besides the terms of trade and tradebalances, the real money supply and the real income are also included in this study. Theempirical analysis is based on the bounds testing approach of cointegration developed byPesaran et al. (2001). The results of the study strongly confirm that terms of trade havepositive effects on trade balance which supports the HLM effect in Korea. According to themonetary approach to the balance of payment, increases in money supply lead to the increasein expenditure which results in deterioration of balance of payments. However, the empiricalresults of this study reveal that increases in money supply improve trade balance while theincreases in real income cause decline in trade balances.

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