순서형 프로빗모형에 의한 이륜차 사고심각도의 영향요인 분석 (Analysis of Factors influencing Severity of Motorcycle Accidents using Ordered Probit Model)

서지정보

· 발행기관 : 한국도로학회
· 수록지 정보 : 한국도로학회논문집 / 16권 / 5호 / 143 ~ 154페이지
· 저자명 : 최정우, 금기정

초록

PURPOSES : This study drew factors affecting motorcycle accidents in Seoul by severity using an ordered probit model and aimed toanalyze and verify the drawn influence factors.
METHODS: As the severity of the accidents could be classified into three types (fatal injury, serious injury and minor injury), this studydrew the factors affecting accidents by a comparative analysis employing an ordered probit model, removed the variables that would not securesignificance sequentially to construct a model with high explanatory power regarding the factors affecting the severity of motorcycle accidents,and calculated the marginal effect of each factor to understand the degree of each factor’s impact on the severity. First, Model 1 put in allvariables; Model 2 was constructed by removing the variables of the road surface conditions that could not meet the level of significance(p=0.608); Model 3 was constructed by removing gender variable (p=0.423); and Model 4 was constructed finally by removing age variable(p=0.320).
RESULTS : As a result of an analysis, statistically significant variables were time of occurrence, type of accident, road alignment andmotorcycle displacement, and it turned out that the impacts on the severity were in the following order: a road alignment of left downhill, thetype of motorcycle-to-vehicle accidents and a road alignment of a flatland on the left. The significance of the models was tested using thelikelihood ratio, the level of significance and suitability statistics about them, and as a result of the test, the significance level and suitability ofthe constructed models were all excellent. In addition, the model accuracy indicating the accuracy of a predicted value compared to that of thevalue actually observed was 70.3% for minor injury; 70.1% for serious injury; and 68.6% for fatal injury, and the overall accuracy was 70.2%,which was very high.
CONCLUSIONS: As a result of an analysis of motorcycle accidents in Seoul through the ordered probit model and the marginal effect, itturned out that their severity increased in nighttime accidents as compared to daytime ones and gradually increased in the order of motorcycleto-vehicle accidents, motorcycle-to-person ones and the ones involving motorcycle only. As a result of an analysis, the severity of accidents inroad alignments of left downhill, left flatland and straight downhill increased as compared to those in a road alignment of straight flatland andthat the severity of accidents of motorcycles with a displacement larger than 50cc was higher than that of those with a displacement smallerthan 50cc.

영어초록

PURPOSES : This study drew factors affecting motorcycle accidents in Seoul by severity using an ordered probit model and aimed toanalyze and verify the drawn influence factors.
METHODS: As the severity of the accidents could be classified into three types (fatal injury, serious injury and minor injury), this studydrew the factors affecting accidents by a comparative analysis employing an ordered probit model, removed the variables that would not securesignificance sequentially to construct a model with high explanatory power regarding the factors affecting the severity of motorcycle accidents,and calculated the marginal effect of each factor to understand the degree of each factor’s impact on the severity. First, Model 1 put in allvariables; Model 2 was constructed by removing the variables of the road surface conditions that could not meet the level of significance(p=0.608); Model 3 was constructed by removing gender variable (p=0.423); and Model 4 was constructed finally by removing age variable(p=0.320).
RESULTS : As a result of an analysis, statistically significant variables were time of occurrence, type of accident, road alignment andmotorcycle displacement, and it turned out that the impacts on the severity were in the following order: a road alignment of left downhill, thetype of motorcycle-to-vehicle accidents and a road alignment of a flatland on the left. The significance of the models was tested using thelikelihood ratio, the level of significance and suitability statistics about them, and as a result of the test, the significance level and suitability ofthe constructed models were all excellent. In addition, the model accuracy indicating the accuracy of a predicted value compared to that of thevalue actually observed was 70.3% for minor injury; 70.1% for serious injury; and 68.6% for fatal injury, and the overall accuracy was 70.2%,which was very high.
CONCLUSIONS: As a result of an analysis of motorcycle accidents in Seoul through the ordered probit model and the marginal effect, itturned out that their severity increased in nighttime accidents as compared to daytime ones and gradually increased in the order of motorcycleto-vehicle accidents, motorcycle-to-person ones and the ones involving motorcycle only. As a result of an analysis, the severity of accidents inroad alignments of left downhill, left flatland and straight downhill increased as compared to those in a road alignment of straight flatland andthat the severity of accidents of motorcycles with a displacement larger than 50cc was higher than that of those with a displacement smallerthan 50cc.

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