중국 불확실성 측정과 실물경제에의 영향 (Uncertainty measurement and its effect on the real economy in China)

서지정보

· 발행기관 : 한중사회과학학회
· 수록지 정보 : 한중사회과학연구 / 17권 / 1호 / 119 ~ 150페이지
· 저자명 : 이기영

초록

Chinese economy has achieved remarkable growth in terms of quantity, but Chinese economy is still immature in terms of quality, and there exist various problems in many fields of economic structure and operating system. Chinese economy, which has achieved rapid economic growth in the meantime, now reaches its limitation of growth model and engine and faces a new point of time that can not guarantee sustainable growth. As China enters this period called New Normal, the Chinese government is moving forward through the transition of growth engine and economic structure, etc., but due to the political and economic characteristics of China, it is expected to take a considerable time for the transition of this growth engine and economic mechanism to be successful, and for uncertainty to increase significantly during this period, and the increase of uncertainty is likely to be sustained for not temporary but considerable period of time, so in the analysis of Chinese economy in the future, it is necessary to study considering the existence and the change of this uncertainty.
This study intends to measure the uncertainty of Chinese economy based on Jurado et al (2015) basically and to understand the effect of the change of uncertainty of Chinese economy on the real economy of China. However, this study does not cite the method of Jurado et al (2015) as it is, but intends to estimate the uncertainty specified to Chinese economy by modifying and differently weighing the variable categories and variable items in accordance with the structure and reality of Chinese economy, and to confirm the effect on the real economy through Impulse Response and Variance Decomposition. In addition, in confirming the real economy, not only it tests some of the single variables that represent the real economy, but also it intends to extract two common factors of Economic Activity and Inflation, which represent the Chinese real economy, and to confirm its response to the uncertainty.

영어초록

Chinese economy has achieved remarkable growth in terms of quantity, but Chinese economy is still immature in terms of quality, and there exist various problems in many fields of economic structure and operating system. Chinese economy, which has achieved rapid economic growth in the meantime, now reaches its limitation of growth model and engine and faces a new point of time that can not guarantee sustainable growth. As China enters this period called New Normal, the Chinese government is moving forward through the transition of growth engine and economic structure, etc., but due to the political and economic characteristics of China, it is expected to take a considerable time for the transition of this growth engine and economic mechanism to be successful, and for uncertainty to increase significantly during this period, and the increase of uncertainty is likely to be sustained for not temporary but considerable period of time, so in the analysis of Chinese economy in the future, it is necessary to study considering the existence and the change of this uncertainty.
This study intends to measure the uncertainty of Chinese economy based on Jurado et al (2015) basically and to understand the effect of the change of uncertainty of Chinese economy on the real economy of China. However, this study does not cite the method of Jurado et al (2015) as it is, but intends to estimate the uncertainty specified to Chinese economy by modifying and differently weighing the variable categories and variable items in accordance with the structure and reality of Chinese economy, and to confirm the effect on the real economy through Impulse Response and Variance Decomposition. In addition, in confirming the real economy, not only it tests some of the single variables that represent the real economy, but also it intends to extract two common factors of Economic Activity and Inflation, which represent the Chinese real economy, and to confirm its response to the uncertainty.

참고자료

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