지역별 HPAI 확산 위험 분석 (Analysis of the Risk of HPAI Transmission by Region)

서지정보

· 발행기관 : 한국농식품정책학회
· 수록지 정보 : 농업경영.정책연구 / 50권 / 1호 / 23 ~ 38페이지
· 저자명 : 조재성, 김현중

초록

In this study, HPAI outbreak data and an epidemiological model were used to estimate the basic reproduction number for HPAI by region, and based on this, the risk of HPAI spread by region was compared, and regional characteristics affecting the difference in risk of HPAI spread were investigated.
As a result of the analysis, it was found that the infection spread condition (basic reproduction number of 1 or more) was satisfied in all regions where the HPAI transmission rate was estimated. In addition, it was found that the size of the region and the type of poultry raising in the region had a statistically significant effect on the HPAI transmission rate.
Based on the findings, the implications are presented as follows. First, more stricter quarantine measures are needed to prevent the spread of HPAI in areas where basic reproduction number and HPAI transmission rate are consistently high. Second, in order to reduce the risk of HPAI spread, it is necessary to shorten the time from identification of infected farms to culling. Third, it is necessary to further strengthen biosafety in regions with relatively small area, many duck farms and poultry, and many paddy fields.

영어초록

In this study, HPAI outbreak data and an epidemiological model were used to estimate the basic reproduction number for HPAI by region, and based on this, the risk of HPAI spread by region was compared, and regional characteristics affecting the difference in risk of HPAI spread were investigated.
As a result of the analysis, it was found that the infection spread condition (basic reproduction number of 1 or more) was satisfied in all regions where the HPAI transmission rate was estimated. In addition, it was found that the size of the region and the type of poultry raising in the region had a statistically significant effect on the HPAI transmission rate.
Based on the findings, the implications are presented as follows. First, more stricter quarantine measures are needed to prevent the spread of HPAI in areas where basic reproduction number and HPAI transmission rate are consistently high. Second, in order to reduce the risk of HPAI spread, it is necessary to shorten the time from identification of infected farms to culling. Third, it is necessary to further strengthen biosafety in regions with relatively small area, many duck farms and poultry, and many paddy fields.

참고자료

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