딥러닝 신경망을 이용한 신용카드 부도위험 예측의 효용성 분석 (Effectiveness Analysis of Credit Card Default Risk with Deep Learning Neural Network)

서지정보

· 발행기관 : 한국금융학회
· 수록지 정보 : 금융연구 / 33권 / 1호 / 151 ~ 183페이지
· 저자명 : 윤종문

초록

본 연구는 국내․외 금융시장에서 아직 활성화되지 못한 딥러닝 신경망(deep learning neural network) 알고리즘을 이용해 신용카드 부도위험 예측의 정확도 향상 가능성에 대해서 점검한다. 이를 위해 기존 머신러닝 알고리즘(Logistic, SVM, Random Forest, Lasso 등)을 딥러닝 신경망 분석의 성능 점검을 위한 비교 지표로 활용한다. 우선, 딥러닝 신경망은 두 개의 은닉층(hidden layers)과 다섯 개의 뉴런(neuron)으로 구축하고, 활성함수(activation function)와 초기값(initial value) 설정방법에 따른 예측정확도를 도출한다. 그 결과 딥러닝 신경망 분석이 기존 머신러닝 알고리즘 보다 최소 0.6%p에서 최대 6.6%p 성능이 향상된 것으로 나타났다. 이 중 가장 높은 예측 정확도를 보인 활성함수와 초기값 설정방식은 ReLU(rectified linear units)와 Xavier(2010)이고 이를 기준으로 은닉층과 뉴런의 수를 각각 최대 10개와 25개까지 늘려 분석한 결과에서도 유사한 결과가 나타났다. 다만, 기존 연구에서와 같이 은닉층과 뉴런의 수의 증가에 따른 뚜렷한 성능의 향상은 나타나지 않았다. 또한, 이미지 식별 분야에서 높은 성능을 보였던 Dropout과 CNN(convolution neural network) 모델도 예측 정확도에서 큰 차이를 보이지 않았다. 이는 여기에서 사용된 신용카드 데이터가 다수 픽셀(pixel)로 이루어진 이미지 데이터와 비교해 양적․질적 한계가 있기 때문으로 판단된다. 한편, 본 연구에서 사용된 개인의 신용카드 부도 데이터는 횡단면 자료이기 때문에 시계열 데이터에서 높은 성능을 나타내는 RNN(recurrent neural network) 및 LSTM(Long- Short Term Memory) 등의 딥러닝 신경망 알고리즘을 사용하지는 않았다. 따라서 추후 시계열 자료가 포함된 빅데이터를 통해 이들 딥러닝 신경망 방법론을 적용한다면, 현재의 다양한 금융시장의 식별문제(신용등급, 연체율, 금리산정)에 있어 보다 향상된 결과를 도출할 수 있을 것으로 기대된다.

영어초록

This study aims to discuss the usefulness of the deep learning neural network and the possibility of the deep learning neural network analysis in judging credit information by using credit card default data. Deep learning neural network analysis in the financial sector excluding the current stock price prediction model is under limited research. It is mainly used for upgrading models of the credit rating (Kvamme et al., 2016, 2018; Tran, 2016; Luo, 2017) and the delinquency rate (Sirignano et al., 2018).
In the credit card market, it is focused on credit card issuance and fraud detection model (Ramanathan, 2014, Niimi, 2015). As mentioned earlier, there has not been much analysis of deep learning neural network using financial market data. This is because the study of deep learning neural networks is actively carried out mainly in the field of computer science such as image, speech recognition, natural language processing. Additionally, Researchers in the financial sector have difficulty learning deep learning algorithms and setting up a computer runtime environment. It is also difficult to apply the algorithm to financial data due to lower dimension than the image. Nowadays, financial companies have been interested in machine learning and are increasing their recruitment, but it is still in the stage of verifying the possibility of deep learning neural network.
Therefore, This study examines the possibility of improving the accuracy of credit card default risk prediction by using a deep learning neural network algorithm. To do this, we use existing machine learning algorithms (Logistic, SVM, Random Forest, Lasso, etc.) as a comparison index for performance check of deep learning neural network analysis. Firstly, the deep learning neural network is constructed with two hidden layers and five neurons, and derives the prediction accuracy according to the activation function and the initial value setting method. There are Sigmoid, ReLU, tanh and Maxout as active functions, and random value, Xavier, RBM, He’s as initialization methods. Based on this, we compare the accuracy of existing machine learning algorithms. As a result, the deep learning neural network analysis showed performance improvement between 0.6% and 6.6%p compared to the existing machine learning algorithms (Logistic, SVM, Random Forest, Lasso, etc.). Among these results, the active function and the initial value setting method with the highest prediction accuracy are ReLU (rectified linear units) and Xavier initialization. However, there is no significant improvement in performance with increasing number of hidden layers and neurons up to 10 and 25, respectively. Also, the dropout and CNN (convolution neural network) models, which showed high performance in the field of image identification, showed no significant difference in prediction accuracy.
Nevertheless, it could be interpreted that the increase of hidden layers can improve the accuracy of estimation because the highest accuracy (0.8161) and the AUC (0.7726) are observed for 10 hidden nodes and 15 neurons.
However, we can’t say that accuracy increases linearly by the number of hidden layers and neurons. These limitation could be due to the quantitative and qualitative limitations of the credit card data used here. We did not use recurrent neural network (RNN) and long-short term memory (LSTM) models since the personal default data for credit card used in this study is cross-sectional data. These method are for Time-Series data. Therefore, it is expected that it will be able to obtain better results in identification problems (credit rating, delinquency rate, interest rate calculation) of present various financial markets if these deep learning neural network methodologies are applied through big data including time series data.
This study can be turned into a question of how deep learning analysis can lower the default risk and delinquency rate by using financial data from a practical point of view. It can also mitigate the information asymmetry of financial services. More sophisticated credit rating could make financial companies to reduce costs and financial consumers to use services at lower fees. Therefore, it is time for financial authorities and financial companies to pay attention and support for the deep learning neural network analysis to improve the quality of financial services.

참고자료

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