한국 인플레이션의 원인에 대한 통화론적 접근 (A Monetarism Approach to Inflation in Korea)

서지정보

· 발행기관 : 한국상업경영학회
· 수록지 정보 : 상업경영연구 / 23권 / 4호 / 205 ~ 224페이지
· 저자명 : 김영호

초록

본 연구는 통화주의 이론이 제시한 모델이 우리나라 경제에 적용될 수 있다는 가정에서 출발하여 Fisher의 교환방정식과 Friedman의 화폐수요함수를 추정함으로써 인플레이션의 원인을 실증적으로 분석해 보고자 하였다.
분석결과 통화론자 모형의 추정식이 설명력이 높고, 관심 대상인 물가수준과 통화량, 물가수준과 실질소득 간에 밀접한 상관관계를 보임으로써, 통화주의 이론이 우리나라 경제에 적용될 수 있다는 긍정적인 결과를 얻을 수 있었다. 이는 인플레이션이 화폐적 현상이라는 Friedman의 명제를 확인시켜주는 결과이다. 물론 화폐적 요인만이 우리나라의 인플레이션을 야기시킨 유일한 원인은 아닐 것이다. 그러나 통화량의 과다한 팽창이 물가상승에 크게 기여하였을 것이라는 점을 실증적으로 보여주고 있다.
따라서 인플레이션에 대한 대책으로 준칙을 준수하는 것이 필요하며, 통화당국이 이러한 준칙을 독자적으로 추진할 수 있도록 중앙은행의 자율성을 더욱 강화할 필요가 있다.

영어초록

Milton Friedman and Monetarism are synonymous, Monetarism's proposition is that money is extremely important for macroeconomics, that money is more important than other things such as fiscal policy, and, in some variant, that money is virtually all that matters.
The primary objective of this study is to investigate the effectiveness of the constant growth rate rule of the money stock ( rule) in the stabilization policy to reduce inflation rate in Korea.
In order to attain the objective, this study has empirically estimated several equations which have been derived from Irving Fisher's Equation of Exchange and Milton Friedman's Money Demand Function. The empirical results show that the explanatory powers of estimated equations were good and estimated coefficients appeared reasonable. In the price level equations the coefficients of money supply were statistically significant indicating that the increase in money stock will cause rise in the price level. And price expectation variable turned out to be also significant in forming inflation. And the estimated result of Friedman's demand- for-money equation is impressive. is very high (0.96) and estimated coefficients on income and interest are very significant. They have the same signs as Friedman hypothesized them to be. The elasticity of the demand for real money balances with respect to real income is 1.426. This is just what Friedman hypothesized : that cash balances are elastic with respect to income.
The empirical results tell us that monetary factors have explicitly or implicitly played a dominant role in Korean inflation. So, one of the most effective policy instruments to be properly adopted in reducing inflation is closely related with the appropriate measures which can efficiently rule out the profoundly rooted attitude in forming the wrong price anticipation by the Korean minds. To do this, the rule of the money stock is desirably to be institutionalized at the central bank.

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