During the 1992 presidential campaign, Bill Clinton maintained, “in a world where freedom, not tyranny, is on the march, the cynical calculus of pure power politics simply does not compute. It is ill-suited to a new era.1” Indeed, the world from 1992 saw huge transitions from hard-powerdriven rivalry between U.S. and Soviet Union to a world with more liberal values – a more democratic, institutionalized and globalized world – as Bill Clinton anticipated. There are numerous signs of democratization, institutionalization and globalization; to name a few, the sheer size of international trade and capital flows have increased drastically from 1992, and many international institutions were enacted or acquired increasing power in international relations: WTO has been established in 1995 to replace GATT and has reinforced free trades. However, some recent incidents - Russia’s invasion on Crimea and covert infiltration on Ukraine, and China’s increasingly aggressive attitude toward international issues from 2008 in the international relations -have proved that Bill Clinton’s argument is wrong, and “the cynical calculus of pure power politics” yet has something to say about current incidents.
1 IntroductionIn general, random variables may be uncorrelated but statistically dependent. In other words, the fact that RVs are uncorrelated does not necessarily mean that they are independent. However, if a random vector has a multivariate normal distribution, then any two or more of its uncorrelated components are also independent.The Multivariate Normal distribution is specified by Y ∼ Nn(µ, V).The distribution has µ as an n × 1 mean vector, and V is a symmetric, n covariance matrix, with Vij = Cov(Yi, Yj ).Then, the multivariate Normal density function is:
1 IntroductionIn Bayesian statistics, we assign a prior distribution representing our initial beliefs about the parameter before we have seen any data, then we update this by weighting by the likelihood that the observed data might have arisen from a particular parameter.1 If we have some initial information about the parameter, it should be incorporated in the prior density.However, if we have no prior information, we want a prior with minimal influence on the inference. We call such a prior a noninformative prior.
The History of Urban Air Pollution in UK1. IntroductionThe air pollution problem is closely related to the number of people living in an area and the kinds of activities in which they are involved. When a population is small and its energy use is low, the impact to people is small. Pollution is diluted and the overall negative effect is slight. However, ever since the industrial revolution, people started moving from rural areas to urban areas. Simultaneously, factories using huge amount of fossil fuels and energy were initiated and located in city centers. These are what induced such tragic air pollution accidents. Because London has been one of the most urbanized and industrialized cities since the early industrial revolution period, London showed the series of accidents and progress of air pollution eminently. Other states and cities followed or went simultaneously with London. The occasions and the causes were similar. Therefore, London’s air pollution accidents and people’s actions and making green belts around the town. But his proposals were not accepted because the damages of air pollution were minor at that time. Not only John Evelyn complained about the air pollution in London at that time, but also other critics such as the French traveler Pierre- Jean Grosley commented about the London’s air pollution. He said, “The smoke forms a cloud which envelops London like a mantle; a cloud which… suffers the sun to break out only now and then, which casual appearance procures the Londoners a few of what they call glorious days”. Louis Simond also complained in 1810 that, “It is difficult to form an idea of the kind of winter days in London”, and “the smoke of fossil coals forms an atmosphere, perceivable for many miles.”In 1821, the first Act which tried to sooth the effects of smoke was enacted. And after few decades, British Alkali Act was established. Under Alkali Act, one inspector and four sub-inspectors were arranged to check the emissions of gases such as hrain, sharing the machine with train driver. Now the passengers died and the disaster was called ‘purgation’. In this novel, it is clear that people started to feel fear on the smog of London.In the early 20th century, smog reduction regulations became tighter than acts of 19th century. Smoke Abatement Act 1926 was proposed to regulating the emissions from factories and other industrial sources. Actually, the importance of coal as a fuel declined a lot. However, pollution from domestic and industrial sources was significant anyway.When acts such as Smoke Abatement Act 1926 could not regulate and reduce the smoke and the degree of air pollution efficiently, the incident called “The Great Smog” happened. It was only after the London smog disaster that people started considering ways to solve the air pollution problem seriously and actively.3. London FogBefore “The Great Smog” in 1952, smog seldom appeared in London. However, the effect was more minor than the London Fog and not many peopld not see objects more than few meters away. The following day and on the Sunday and Monday, the fog thickened again. People could not go outside during the night even though they were familiar with the streets and roads. Finally, the fog disappeared in 9 December.During this period, a lot of air pollutants were released. The most preeminent reason is the decrease of temperature. Because smog covered the sun, sunlight could not be transmitted to London. Therefore, the temperature of London fell and it provoked the people in London to burn more coals. On each day, 1,000 tones of smoke particles, 2,000 tones of carbon dioxides were released. And most crucially, 800 tones of sulfuric acids were produced by the synthesis of sulfur dioxide and other gases.The fog caused a lot of damages and loss. On 5 December, Friday, domestic animals such as cows died, and London citizens suffered diseases lately. Emergency wards were busy taking care of patients; there were emergent patients 130 per dayy 1750, London : Hodder 2nd ed. 19973. Joe R. Eagleman . Air Pollution Meteorology: Trimedia, 19914. Chris Cook & John Stevenson, Britain Since 1945, Second Edition : Longman, 20005. Kenneth J. Panton & Keith A.Cowlard, Historical Dictionary of The United Kingdom, Vol.1 England and the United Kingdom : The Scarecrow Press, 19976. Joel A. Tarr, Devastation and Renewal: University of Pittsburgh Press, Pittsburgh, 20057. Eldon D.Enger, Bradley F.Smith., Environmental Science: A Study of Interrelationships : McGrawHill8. Article: John Evelyn from Wikipedia,HYPERLINK "http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Evelyn"http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Evelyn9. Article: Clear Air Act: Legislative background, from UK Smoke Control Areas,http://www.uksmokecontrolareas.co.uk/index.php10. Article: The Great Smog of 1952 from MetOffice,http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/education/secondary/students/smog.html11. Article: Inverse Layer from Wikipedia,HYPERLINK "http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inversion_layer"http://en/
The Economic History of SiberiaTable of ContentsIntroductionFur trade before Russian OccupationRussian fur industry before conquest of Siberia.Novgorod merchants engaging in fur tradeGolden Horde and Tatar Khanate of SibirEconomy after Russian ColonizationTransportation after Russian ColonizationShippingHorse ridingThe Great Siberian RoadThe Trans-Siberian RailroadEconomy after Russian OccupationFur trade during Russian OccupationInterchange between China and RussiaTreaty of NerchinskTreaty of KyakhtaKyakhta as the center of the tradeAgriculture IndustryMining industryCoal MiningConclusionIntroductionDiscoveries in the late 1990s indicate that Siberia was inhabited as early as 300,000 years ago. (1) Southern Siberia came under the Chinese influence around 1000 B.C and then Turkic-Mongol conquered Siberia during in the 3rd century B.C. From the 10th century to the middle of 15th century, South-west was inhabited primarily by Mongol’s khanate of the Golden Horde. After it, Sibir Khanate d cars) were used. (17) Travelers from west to east sometimes sell those vehicles when they reached the eastern parts of Siberia, because those vehicles were scarcely produced in the eastern parts of Siberia so they could sell in a more expensive cost. Horses were not used as a primary transporting measure for crops or smelted ores.The Great Siberian RoadThe Great Siberian Road connected European Russia to Siberia and China. The actual route started in Moscow and passed through many regions such as Murom, Kazan, Tobolsk, Tomsk, Irkutsk, Nerchinsk, and before terminating at Kyakhta, a trade post on the border with China.(18) The construction of it was decreed by the Czar two months after the conclusion of the Treaty of Nerchinsk; however, it was started to be built from 1730s. It served as route for trade between European Russia, Siberia and China; main products were furs and tea. (19)The Trans-Siberian RailroadTrans-Siberian railroad was constructed in 1891-1905. The construction of thports from their respective courts. (32)Treaty of KyakhtaAfter the treaty of Nerchinsk, the trade between Chinese and Russians flourished; however, conflicts between Chinese and Russians aroused and repeated complaints were transmitted to the Chinese Emperor of the drunkenness and misconduct of China. Due to these conflicts, Chinese ruler, Camhi, ordered the total expulsion of the Russians from the Chinese and Mongol territories. (33) Trades between the two nations immediately ceased. Consequently, Russia sent Vladislavitch Ragusinski and established the treaty of Kyakhta, which resolves the conflicts and deals with the legal and commercial relations of the two nations on the frontier; punishments for specific crimes were delineated, and an Article on the exchange of fugitives was included. (34)It also included some of the articles related to commerce. A caravan was allowed to go to Pekin every three years, and the privilege before enjoyed by individual merchants was taken away, and priberia, mainly near Ural Mountains. While minerals could be easily transported due to vast river system directly linking Western Siberia to the Ural Mountains, ores produced in eastern parts could not. (55) Except the western part of Siberia, mining industry could not develop fully until the construction of the Trans-Siberian Railroad. The emancipation of Russian serfs in 1861 made the eastern part of Siberia more difficult to be developed. (56) In western parts, it was beneficial in that liberated serfs flooded into these areas, providing labor forces. However, in southern parts, it was not beneficial at all. It changed the condition of mining industries in Siberia. Not many serfs moved to eastern parts of Siberia because of the lack of cheap transportation. Moreover, the serfs originally resided in the eastern parts of Siberia were emancipated; therefore, the labor cost increased and it led to a significant reduction in the exploratory diggings. (57) Also, it increased the cost of trt Siberian Railway, p. 261“Trans-Siberian Railroad”, from Britannica Online EncyclopediaConquest of Siberia p. 6“Fur Trade: Russia”, from Answers.com“Fur Trade: Russia”, fromAnswers.comEast of the Sun, p. 72East of the Sun, p. 72“Fur Trade: Russia”, from Answers.comArticle: “History of Siberia”, from WikipediaArticle: “Khabarovsk Krai”, from WikipediaConquest of Siberia p. 36Conquest of Siberia p. 35Conquest of Siberia p. 40Article: “Treaty of Kyakhta”, from WikipediaConquest of Siberia p. 40Conquest of Siberia p. 40Conquest of Siberia, p. 75A Summary View of the Statistics and Existing Commerce of the Principal Shores of the Pacific Ocean, p. 84“Siberia: History”, from Rusnet, Online Encyclopedia.Article: “History of Siberia”, from WikipediaA Handbook of Siberia and Arctic Russia, p. 236Article: “History of Siberia”, from WikipediaArticle: “History of Siberia”, from WikipediaA Handbook of Siberia and Arctic Russia, p. 236A Handbook of Siberia and Arctic Russia, p. 236A Handbook of Sib2008