서식지 기후특성을 고려한 SSP 시나리오에 따른 남방계 식물의 서식지 예측 (The Habitat Prediction of Southern Lineage Plants under SSP (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways) Scenarios Considering Habitat Climate Characteristics)

서지정보

· 발행기관 : 한국환경복원기술학회
· 수록지 정보 : 한국환경복원기술학회지 / 27권 / 6호 / 179 ~ 195페이지
· 저자명 : 이은서, 서창완, 이재호

초록

Climate change poses significant risks to biodiversity and ecosystems globally, necessitating comprehensive strategies for conservation and adaptation. This study aimed to analyze future habitat changes according to climate characteristics for southern lineage plants distributed in South Korea by applying SSP scenarios. The study targeted southern lineage plants among the Korean Peninsula climate change adaptation target plants of the Korea Forest Service and used 6 bioclimatic variables generated from SSP climate scenario data of Korea Meteorological Administration. In addition, the best model was selected among 10 species distribution models (SDMs). As results of this study, Random Forest (RF) was selected as the final model to be applied. The type classification of southern lineage plants considering climate characteristics was classified into three groups: temperature-sensitive group (15 species), precipitation-sensitive group (7 species), and combined-sensitive group (58 species) using the characteristics of the top two variables with the highest model contribution among six bioclimatic variables. The habitats of all 80 southern lineage plants expanded to the east coast, west coast, and inland in both scenarios, and showed faster changes in the SSP5-8.5 scenario. The variables that had the greatest influence on habitat change were identified as temperature (BIO1) and daily temperature range (BIO2), as well as annual precipitation (BIO12) and precipitation of dry period (BIO14), play an important role in determining the distribution of southern plants. In the temperature-sensitive group, habitats move along the southern region and two coastlines, but in the precipitation-sensitive group, the pattern is distinct, especially the movement toward inland is clearly evident. Different habitat change patterns were observed in each of the three groups, suggesting the possibility of biodiversity redistribution between regions. This study provides valuable insights into the ecological impacts of climate change, emphasizing the need for proactive measures to address the spread of subtropical invasive species and pests. The findings offer a scientific basis for policy development and conservation strategies, particularly in urban and agricultural areas. Future research should integrate additional environmental factors, such as soil properties and human activities, to refine predictions and develop more comprehensive adaptation strategies.

영어초록

Climate change poses significant risks to biodiversity and ecosystems globally, necessitating comprehensive strategies for conservation and adaptation. This study aimed to analyze future habitat changes according to climate characteristics for southern lineage plants distributed in South Korea by applying SSP scenarios. The study targeted southern lineage plants among the Korean Peninsula climate change adaptation target plants of the Korea Forest Service and used 6 bioclimatic variables generated from SSP climate scenario data of Korea Meteorological Administration. In addition, the best model was selected among 10 species distribution models (SDMs). As results of this study, Random Forest (RF) was selected as the final model to be applied. The type classification of southern lineage plants considering climate characteristics was classified into three groups: temperature-sensitive group (15 species), precipitation-sensitive group (7 species), and combined-sensitive group (58 species) using the characteristics of the top two variables with the highest model contribution among six bioclimatic variables. The habitats of all 80 southern lineage plants expanded to the east coast, west coast, and inland in both scenarios, and showed faster changes in the SSP5-8.5 scenario. The variables that had the greatest influence on habitat change were identified as temperature (BIO1) and daily temperature range (BIO2), as well as annual precipitation (BIO12) and precipitation of dry period (BIO14), play an important role in determining the distribution of southern plants. In the temperature-sensitive group, habitats move along the southern region and two coastlines, but in the precipitation-sensitive group, the pattern is distinct, especially the movement toward inland is clearly evident. Different habitat change patterns were observed in each of the three groups, suggesting the possibility of biodiversity redistribution between regions. This study provides valuable insights into the ecological impacts of climate change, emphasizing the need for proactive measures to address the spread of subtropical invasive species and pests. The findings offer a scientific basis for policy development and conservation strategies, particularly in urban and agricultural areas. Future research should integrate additional environmental factors, such as soil properties and human activities, to refine predictions and develop more comprehensive adaptation strategies.

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