Natural Gas Cooperation with North Korea in Preparation for Unification: Implications for the Post Russia-Ukraine War Period

서지정보

· 발행기관 : 계명대학교 국제학연구소
· 수록지 정보 : 국제학논총 / 40권 / 167 ~ 203페이지
· 저자명 : 신상윤

초록

This study emphasizes that the Russia-North Korea-South Korea gas pipeline project, while difficult to realize in the short term, should be prepared for in the mid-to-long term. While the Russia-Ukraine War is ongoing, the alliance among North Korea, China, and Russia is strengthening, leading to an intensification of their confrontation with the United States, Japan and South Korea. Despite these challenges, this project remains meaningful and necessary for the future. The study describes the gas sectors of Russia, North Korea, and South Korea, the partner countries involved. It also introduces previous project progressions and relevant studies. Through the project, Korea will gain advantages in energy security, gas cost savings, and preparation for unification. North Korea can expect revenue from gas transmission, reduced dependence on China, and additional economic cooperation opportunities. Russia will secure a stable gas consumer that can partly replace Europe, enhance its negotiating power with China, and expand its influence in Northeast Asia with additional cooperation opportunities. The study then focuses on North Korea and the United States as the most critical obstacles to this project and presents possible measures for alleviation. With regard to North Korea, more incentives need to be provided and the project should be implemented based on a detailed pre-contract design under a multilateral framework. In terms of the United States, it is important to monitor changes in the United States-China competition and the United States presidential election. Additionally, promoting the participation of United States companies in the project and expanding United States LNG imports in parallel is recommended.

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