신흥국가의 인플레이션타게팅 도입의 장·단기 효과 (Panel Evidence of Inflation Targeting Emerging Economies)

서지정보

· 발행기관 : 한국무역연구원
· 수록지 정보 : 무역연구 / 11권 / 6호 / 629 ~ 641페이지
· 저자명 : 차혜경, 조성일

초록

Inflation targeting (IT) policy is a kind of monetary policy that is to control inflation rate directly without any other intermediate targets. It is widely reported by previous studies that IT policy is effective to decrease inflation rate, especially more powerful on emerging economies than on advanced economies. Whereas there still remains question: advanced economies' monetary circumstance is all alike, but each emerging economies' circumstance differs in its own way. In this paper regional asymmetric effect of IT policy among the emerging economies is focused. The inflationary effect of IT policy is empirically estimated with the use of a balanced panel of 12 emerging economies from 1980 to 2013. To investigate regional asymmetry, emerging economies are divided into two groups - Latin American countries and non-Latin American countries. The period of IT adoption and regional difference of countries are treated by dummy-variables. Dynamic panel model of partial adjustment regression is applied as an econometric methodology and long-run effect as well as short-run effect are estimated and tested. Empirical results indicate that the inflationary effect of IT is more powerful in the long-run and on Latin America. Such an econometric results imply that the adoption of IT policy decrease expectation of inflation rate in the long-run in Latin American countries which had been exposed to more inflationary circumstance.

영어초록

Inflation targeting (IT) policy is a kind of monetary policy that is to control inflation rate directly without any other intermediate targets. It is widely reported by previous studies that IT policy is effective to decrease inflation rate, especially more powerful on emerging economies than on advanced economies. Whereas there still remains question: advanced economies' monetary circumstance is all alike, but each emerging economies' circumstance differs in its own way. In this paper regional asymmetric effect of IT policy among the emerging economies is focused. The inflationary effect of IT policy is empirically estimated with the use of a balanced panel of 12 emerging economies from 1980 to 2013. To investigate regional asymmetry, emerging economies are divided into two groups - Latin American countries and non-Latin American countries. The period of IT adoption and regional difference of countries are treated by dummy-variables. Dynamic panel model of partial adjustment regression is applied as an econometric methodology and long-run effect as well as short-run effect are estimated and tested. Empirical results indicate that the inflationary effect of IT is more powerful in the long-run and on Latin America. Such an econometric results imply that the adoption of IT policy decrease expectation of inflation rate in the long-run in Latin American countries which had been exposed to more inflationary circumstance.

참고자료

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