일대일로 전략의 전망과 한국의 물류분야 대응방안 - 글로벌 가치사슬 관점 - (China’s “One Belt - One Road” Initiative and its Implications for Korean Maritime Logistics - From the Perspective of Global Value Chains -)

서지정보

· 발행기관 : 한국해운물류학회
· 수록지 정보 : 해운물류연구 / 32권 / 2호 / 361 ~ 385페이지
· 저자명 : 박성준, 길광수, 김세원

초록

중국 일대일로 전략은 육상의 실크로드 경제벨트와 21세기 해상실크로드 구축을 양대 축으로 한다. 중국 일대일로 전략은 주로 유라시아 전역의 거점 도시 건설 및 이를 연결하기 위한 교통물류 인프라 구축, 또는 신유라시아대륙교 등 육상을 중심으로 한 유라시아 운송회랑의 구축을 위한 중국의 대전략이다. 본 논문은 중국 일대일로 전략을 ‘중국제조2025’ 계획에 의해 추동되는 중국 중심의 글로벌 가치사슬 구축노력으로 파악하고자 한다. 또 이를 통해 향후 중국에 의한 유라시아 생산 네트워크의 확산 방향을 예측하고 이에 따른 국제물류 분야에서 한국의 대응방안을 제시하고자 한다. 본 논문은 한국 제조업과 국제물류 상생을 위한 대응방안으로 선도, 편승, 균형, 전략적 헤징의 4개 전략적 대안을 제시한다. 한편 한국의 이해관계와 6대 경제회랑의 지정학 특성에 따라 이 대안들을 선택적 또는 복합적으로 활용할 것을 제안한다. 결론에서는 한국의 글로벌 가치사슬 및 공급사슬 구축 노력과 관련하여 과거 북방 경제권과 아세안(ASEAN) 등 남방 경제권 등 대륙과 해상의 균형을 취할 것을 제안한다.

영어초록

In March 2015, when a more sophisticated action plan for its implementation was announced, the “One Belt-One Road”(OBOR) initiative has been drawing attentions locally and from abroad in the context of international economic integration across Eurasia and its geopolitical environment. As already well known, the OBOR initiative is a grand strategy proposed by the People’s Republic of China(PRC), which consists of two pivotal components: building of the Silk Road Belt and that of the 21st Century Maritime Silk Road.
The OBOR initiative is largely understood as the PRC’s ambitious international proposal for developing six economic corridors across the Eurasian continent, which includes 26 countries, accounting for about 68% of the world population, 29% of the world’s total GDP, and 23.9% of the world’s total trade, mainly by constructing transport/logistics infrastructures, industrial complexes, and improving their intra- and inter-regional connectivities.
Departing from this existing approach, this study attempts to understand the OBOR as a China-centered movement for reshaping the global value chains(GVCs) coupled with the “Made in China 2025,” another ambitious long-term plan for innovating China’s manufacturing capabilities and international competitiveness. In the study, the GVCs are considered a key background concept that can explain correlation between the recent shift of China’s Foreign Direct Investment patterns and the construction of the OBOR.
The study aims to predict the future course of expansion of the international production networks, which will be initiated by PRC, and is expected to be accelerated by the OBOR, while searching for South Korea’s future course and its reactions as a global logistics player. By doing so, the study proposes four strategic options including leading, bandwagoning, balancing, and strategic hedging, which can be selectively adopted or flexibly blended according to the respective geopolitical environments of the six economic corridors embedded in the OBOR.
As a possible strategic option toward the China proper (or Chinese mainland), which may be considered the conceptional gateway and international hub of the OBOR, the study recommends the bandwagoning to South Korea, which means matching China’s national plans relating to logistics development as well as production networks, paying sharp attentions on moving of China’s development strategies including the “Go West” strategy. On the other hand, regarding a possible option toward China-Mongolia-Russia Economic Corridor(CMREC), the study put an emphasis on the necessity of choosing leading option despite of uncertainty of inter-Korean relationship.
In conclusion, the study put an emphasis on keeping a balance in South Korea’s policy stance toward the OBOR, re-estimating the importance and the potential of southern maritime economic corridors in terms of the consolidation of South Korea’s own GVCs and acceleration of going abroad policy in logistics businesses.

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