SPI와 EDI를 이용한 충남 서부지역 과거와 미래 가뭄 평가 (Evaluation of the past and future droughts using Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and Effective Drought Index (EDI) in the western region of Chungnam Province)

서지정보

· 발행기관 : 한국지하수토양환경학회
· 수록지 정보 : 지하수토양환경 / 25권 / 4호 / 14 ~ 27페이지
· 저자명 : 안효원, 하규철

초록

The drought has occurred from the past, and has caused a lot of damage. It is important to analyze the past droughts andpredict them in the future. In this study, the temperature and precipitation of the past and the future from climate changeRCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios were analyzed for Seosan and Boryeong in the western region of Chungnam Province, which isconsidered as a drought-prone area on the Korean Peninsula. Comparing Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) andEffective Drought Index (EDI) based on the past droughts, EDI was verified to be more suitable for the droughtassessment. According to RCP 4.5, the frequency and intensity of droughts in the early future (2021~2060) were expectedto increase and to be stronger. Particularly, severe droughts were predicted for a long time from 2022 to 2026, and from2032 to 2039. Droughts were expected to decrease in the late future (2061~2100). From RCP 8.5, drought occurrenceswere predicted to increase, but the intensity of the droughts were expected to decrease in the future. As a result ofevaluation of the frequencies of droughts by seasons, the region would be most affected by fall drought in the early futureand by spring drought in the late future according to RCP 4.5. In the case of RCP 8.5, the seasonal effects were not clearlydistinguished. These results suggest that droughts in the future do not have any tendency, but continue to occurr as in thepast. Therefore, the measures and efforts to secure water resources and reinforcement of water supply facilities should beprepared to cope with droughts.

영어초록

The drought has occurred from the past, and has caused a lot of damage. It is important to analyze the past droughts andpredict them in the future. In this study, the temperature and precipitation of the past and the future from climate changeRCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios were analyzed for Seosan and Boryeong in the western region of Chungnam Province, which isconsidered as a drought-prone area on the Korean Peninsula. Comparing Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) andEffective Drought Index (EDI) based on the past droughts, EDI was verified to be more suitable for the droughtassessment. According to RCP 4.5, the frequency and intensity of droughts in the early future (2021~2060) were expectedto increase and to be stronger. Particularly, severe droughts were predicted for a long time from 2022 to 2026, and from2032 to 2039. Droughts were expected to decrease in the late future (2061~2100). From RCP 8.5, drought occurrenceswere predicted to increase, but the intensity of the droughts were expected to decrease in the future. As a result ofevaluation of the frequencies of droughts by seasons, the region would be most affected by fall drought in the early futureand by spring drought in the late future according to RCP 4.5. In the case of RCP 8.5, the seasonal effects were not clearlydistinguished. These results suggest that droughts in the future do not have any tendency, but continue to occurr as in thepast. Therefore, the measures and efforts to secure water resources and reinforcement of water supply facilities should beprepared to cope with droughts.

참고자료

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