The U.S. Perceptions of the Unification of the Korean Peninsula and South Korea’s New Unification Strategy

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초록

This paper examines the U.S.’s perceptions of Korean unification and the new unification strategy for South Korea. Theoretically the offensive realism, it is argued that all countries except hegemonic powers pursue changes in the status quo. With the decline of American influence that led to the Liberal International Order since the end of the Cold War, the possibility of a paradigm shift regarding the unification of the Korean Peninsula is increasing. The Ukraine War and the Israel-Hamas conflict serve as clear evidence of the end of the unipolar era. With the increasing likelihood of Trump's re-election in the 2024 U.S. presidential election, there is a growing possibility of a shift in the U.S. foreign policy towards “America First”, potentially leading the U.S. to revert to isolationism as an offshore balancer. While previous U.S. administrations officially supported the principle of Korean Peninsula unification, as the sole hegemonic power in the unipolar era, the U.S. pursued policies of status quo maintenance when crises arose on the Korean Peninsula. If the geopolitical distribution of power shifts due to the decline of the U.S. and the pursuit of status quo changes by authoritarian states like China and Russia, there is a possibility, as suggested by Schweller, of a reconfiguration into a tri-polar system. In a tri-polar system, if two countries pursue status quo changes, instability on the Korean Peninsula could rapidly escalate. This is a critical momentum for South Korea to establish a new strategy for unification.
The U.S. has historically endorsed the unification of the Korean Peninsula; however, in reality, it appears that the U.S. does not wish to change the Korean Peninsula's status quo. Assuming the U.S. adjusts its strategy as an offshore balancer, South Korea needs to establish a new unification strategy. It outlines four types of unification methods, noting great power intervention is inevitable. Given that Korean unification can advance U.S. strategic and economic interests, South Korea must communicate that unification aligns with these interests, will occur incrementally, and will promote regional stability.

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