위안화ㆍ엔화의 환율변동이 호텔매출액 변동에 미치는 영향: VAR모형을 중심으로 (The Influence in the fluctuation of the Hotel Sales attributed to the fluctuation of the Yuan and the Yen's exchange rate by using The VAR Model)

서지정보

· 발행기관 : (사)한국관광레저학회
· 수록지 정보 : 관광레저연구 / 29권 / 1호 / 199 ~ 219페이지
· 저자명 : 문정욱, 이용만

초록

The purpose of this study is to investigate how the fluctuation of Yuan and Yen's exchange rate can influence the fluctuation of the hotel sales through the fluctuation of the number of Chinese and Japanese travelers to KOREA.
This study consists of investigating the previous studies on the factors to influence the hotel sales and analyzing the five time series variables(Yuan exchange rate, Yen exchange rate, the number of Chinese travelers to KOREA, the number of Japanese travelers to KOREA, hotel sales) from 2006 M1 to 2014 M12(108 month). According to the result of ADF(Augmented Dickey Fuller Test), Five variables are stationary after log first differencing. As the Johansen-Juselius Maximum likelihood method, Five variables are not integrated of the same order. So we should use VAR Model. As the Granger Causality test, in the Japanese tourist market to KOREA, Yen's exchange rate causes the number of Japanese travelers to KOREA and the number of Japanese travelers to KOREA causes the hotel sales. in the Chinese tourist market to KOREA, the number of Chinese travelers to KOREA causes the hotel sales, but Yuan's exchange rate does not cause the number of Chinese travelers to KOREA. The Variance Decomposition and the Generalized Impulse Response Function analysis are used to investigate the contribution of exchange rate and number of Chinese and Japanese travelers to KOREA in explaining hotel sales and to assess an impact of hotel sales to various shocks. It supports to use assisting Hotel manager's decision and Government's policy making.

영어초록

The purpose of this study is to investigate how the fluctuation of Yuan and Yen's exchange rate can influence the fluctuation of the hotel sales through the fluctuation of the number of Chinese and Japanese travelers to KOREA.
This study consists of investigating the previous studies on the factors to influence the hotel sales and analyzing the five time series variables(Yuan exchange rate, Yen exchange rate, the number of Chinese travelers to KOREA, the number of Japanese travelers to KOREA, hotel sales) from 2006 M1 to 2014 M12(108 month). According to the result of ADF(Augmented Dickey Fuller Test), Five variables are stationary after log first differencing. As the Johansen-Juselius Maximum likelihood method, Five variables are not integrated of the same order. So we should use VAR Model. As the Granger Causality test, in the Japanese tourist market to KOREA, Yen's exchange rate causes the number of Japanese travelers to KOREA and the number of Japanese travelers to KOREA causes the hotel sales. in the Chinese tourist market to KOREA, the number of Chinese travelers to KOREA causes the hotel sales, but Yuan's exchange rate does not cause the number of Chinese travelers to KOREA. The Variance Decomposition and the Generalized Impulse Response Function analysis are used to investigate the contribution of exchange rate and number of Chinese and Japanese travelers to KOREA in explaining hotel sales and to assess an impact of hotel sales to various shocks. It supports to use assisting Hotel manager's decision and Government's policy making.

참고자료

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