초과외환보유액의 사회적 비용이 한국 경제성장에 미치는 영향 (The Effects of Social Costs of Excess Foreign Exchange Reserves on the Economic Growth in Korean)

서지정보

· 발행기관 : 한국무역연구원
· 수록지 정보 : 무역연구 / 17권 / 3호 / 279 ~ 291페이지
· 저자명 : 이종윤, 이선호, 황준호

초록

Purpose This paper analyzes the direct and indirect effects of the social costs of excess foreign exchange reserves on economic growth in Korea Design/Methodology/Approach We used the ARDL bounds test using quarterly data on the social costs of excess foreign exchange reserves, economic growth, trade, foreign direct investment, and financial instability from 2000 to 2020. At this time, social cost was calculated by subtracting the appropriate foreign exchange reserves calculated according to the IMF rules from actual foreign exchange reserves. In addition, economic volatility and real effective exchange rate were used as control variables to reflect the economic characteristics of Korea and the characteristics of a small open economy with high external dependence.
Findings As a result of analysis, it was found that the increase in social costs of excess foreign exchange reserves not only directly contributed to economic growth in the long term but also has an indirect effect on economic growth through increased trade and foreign direct investment, and eased financial instability. On the other hand, in the short term, the increase in the social costs of excess foreign exchange reserves not only directly contributed to economic growth but also had an indirect effect by easing financial instability.
Research Implications The results of this study can be used to suggest the validity of Korea’s foreign exchange reserve accumulation, but the negative aspects of large-scale foreign reserve accumulation cannot be overlooked. Therefore, in order to minimize the negative impact in terms of cost, plans to stably revitalize private and foreign investment should be prepared, and efforts to diversify the composition of foreign exchange reserves should accompany these efforts.

영어초록

Purpose This paper analyzes the direct and indirect effects of the social costs of excess foreign exchange reserves on economic growth in Korea Design/Methodology/Approach We used the ARDL bounds test using quarterly data on the social costs of excess foreign exchange reserves, economic growth, trade, foreign direct investment, and financial instability from 2000 to 2020. At this time, social cost was calculated by subtracting the appropriate foreign exchange reserves calculated according to the IMF rules from actual foreign exchange reserves. In addition, economic volatility and real effective exchange rate were used as control variables to reflect the economic characteristics of Korea and the characteristics of a small open economy with high external dependence.
Findings As a result of analysis, it was found that the increase in social costs of excess foreign exchange reserves not only directly contributed to economic growth in the long term but also has an indirect effect on economic growth through increased trade and foreign direct investment, and eased financial instability. On the other hand, in the short term, the increase in the social costs of excess foreign exchange reserves not only directly contributed to economic growth but also had an indirect effect by easing financial instability.
Research Implications The results of this study can be used to suggest the validity of Korea’s foreign exchange reserve accumulation, but the negative aspects of large-scale foreign reserve accumulation cannot be overlooked. Therefore, in order to minimize the negative impact in terms of cost, plans to stably revitalize private and foreign investment should be prepared, and efforts to diversify the composition of foreign exchange reserves should accompany these efforts.

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