시계열 분석을 통한 보육교사 수급 전망 (Forecasting Demand of Childcare Teachers using Time Series Analysis)

서지정보

· 발행기관 : 한국보육지원학회
· 수록지 정보 : 한국보육지원학회지 / 12권 / 6호 / 123 ~ 137페이지
· 저자명 : 이미화, 박진아, 강은진

초록

The purpose of this study was to forecast demand of childcare teachers based ion four different scenarios. In order to, the demand for childcare teachers from 2015 to 2024 were forecasted using time series techniques with data on the number of childcare teachers from 2003 to 2014. Results were as followings. Firstly, the demand for childcare teachers was expected to increase until 2019, but after 2020 steadily decreased in terms of scenario 1(child teacher ratio regulation). According to scenario 2(child teacher ratio based on 17 cities and provinces), the demand for childcare teachers was expected to need 440 teachers more until 2016. Then, according to scenario 3(two teachers each class), Scenario 4-1(one teacher and one staff each 2 toddler class and 3 older class) and scenario 4-2(one teacher and one staff each class), the demand of childcare teachers and staffs were estimated.
These results implicated that childcare teachers and staffs supply policy would be established according to forecast demand.

영어초록

The purpose of this study was to forecast demand of childcare teachers based ion four different scenarios. In order to, the demand for childcare teachers from 2015 to 2024 were forecasted using time series techniques with data on the number of childcare teachers from 2003 to 2014. Results were as followings. Firstly, the demand for childcare teachers was expected to increase until 2019, but after 2020 steadily decreased in terms of scenario 1(child teacher ratio regulation). According to scenario 2(child teacher ratio based on 17 cities and provinces), the demand for childcare teachers was expected to need 440 teachers more until 2016. Then, according to scenario 3(two teachers each class), Scenario 4-1(one teacher and one staff each 2 toddler class and 3 older class) and scenario 4-2(one teacher and one staff each class), the demand of childcare teachers and staffs were estimated.
These results implicated that childcare teachers and staffs supply policy would be established according to forecast demand.

참고자료

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