기업수명주기에 따른 회계이익과 순자산의 가치관련성 (Value Relevance of Earnings and Equity: Role of Corporate Life Cycle)

서지정보

· 발행기관 : 한국경영학회
· 수록지 정보 : 경영학연구 / 39권 / 6호 / 1451 ~ 1476페이지
· 저자명 : 박원, 박상규

초록

본 연구는 기업수명주기에 따라 기업가치 평가의 내․외적인 요인인 이익 지속성, 자기자본이익률, 재무적 위험에 차이가 있는지를 검증하고, 또한 이러한 차이로 인하여 기업수명주기가 회계이익과 순자산의 가치관련성에 영향을 미치는지 검증하고자 한다.
연구기간 동안 계속 상장된 12월말 결산 제조기업을 대상으로 실증분석한 결과는 다음과 같다. 첫째, 이익 지속성과 자기자본이익률은 성숙단계 기업이 성장(혹은 쇠퇴)단계 기업보다 높은 것으로 나타났으며, 재무적 위험은 성숙단계 기업이성장(혹은 쇠퇴)단계 기업보다 낮은 것으로 나타났다.
둘째, 이익 지속성과 자기자본이익률이 높은 수준에 있으면서 재무적 위험이 낮은 성숙단계 기업의 경우, 회계이익의 가치관련성이 성장(혹은 쇠퇴)단계 기업의 회계이익의 가치관련성 보다 높게 나타났으며, 반대로 순자산의 가치관련성은 성숙단계 기업의 경우 성장(혹은 쇠퇴)단계 기업의 순자산의 가치관련성 보다 낮은 것으로 나타났다.
본 연구는 Ohlson(1995)의 초과이익 평가모형 내에서 기업수명주기의 역할을 검증하였으며, 수익과 비용의 대응 문제로 변동성이 큰 성장단계에서 회계이익이 영업현금흐름보다 가치관련성이 높지 않다는 일부 연구들(Black, 1998; 최헌섭외, 2006)의 연구결과를 해석하는 데에도 유용한 증거를 제공할 것으로 본다.

영어초록

According to Ohlson(1995)’s residual income model, firm value is determined by weighted average between residual income and book value of equity. Prior researchers suggest that economic circumstances or characteristics influence the relation between earnings(or equity)and stock price. Some of the studies show that external(or internal) factors of firms affect those relations. For example, Barth et al.(1998) argues that as the financial risk increases the price multiple on earnings decreases, but the price multiple on book value of equity increases because of liquidation risk. Also, Burgstahler and Dichev(1997) suggests that equity value depend on the relative values of earnings and book value, and earnings is more important determinant of equity value when ROE is high, but book value becomes the more important determinant of equity value when ROE is low. Lastly, Paek and Choi(1999) shows that earnings’ persistence affects firm valuation, and earnings’ persistence is positively associated with price earnings ratio, but negatively associated with price to book value ratio.
The purpose of this study is to investigate whether the corporate life cycle has a differential effect on the external or internal firm valuation factors? If it does, will the corporate life cycle has a differential effect on earnings-price multiples or book value-price multiples? We predict that the earnings’ persistence and ROE in maturity stage is higher than those of growth(or decline) stage, and the financial risk in maturity stage is lower than that of growth(or decline) stage. Also, the earnings-price multiples in maturity stage is higher than that of growth(or decline) stage, but book value-price multiples in maturity stage is lower than that of growth(or decline) stage. To test our hypotheses, we measure corporate life cycle based on sales growth, capital expenditures, M/B ratio, retained earnings’ ratio and employee growth as in prior studies.
Also, external(or internal) firm valuation factors are measured by earnings’ variation and/or the persistence of residual income for earnings’ persistence(as in Kumar and Krishnan 2008,Paek and Choi 1999), current earnings divided by prior period book value for ROE(as in Burgsthaler and Dichev 1997), the score of credit rating for financial risk(as in Barth et al.
1998). Also, we use Ohlson(1995) model to relate stock prices to earnings and book value.
An empirical analysis is performed for non-banking firms(2,412 firm-years) listed on the Korean Exchange over 2003～2008. The results are summarized as follows. The ROE and earnings’ persistence in maturity stage is higher than those of growth(or decline) stage, and the financial risk in maturity stage is lower than that of the other stages. Also, earningsprice multiples is the highest in maturity stage, but book value-price multiples is the lowest in maturity stage. The results imply that corporate life cycle has important effect on external or internal factors(for example, earnings’ persistence, ROE or financial risk) for firm valuation.
Also, corporate life cycle has differential effect on the value relevance of earnings and equity.
Finally, the results of this study provide one evidence for the discrepancy of prior studies’results. For example, Dechow(1994) shows that in growth stage with high operational variation,price is more closely related with earnings than cash flow because of time lag and correspondence of revenue-expenditure recognition. However, Black(1998) and Choi et al.(2006) report conflicting results with Dechow(1994).

참고자료

· 없음