한국의 對 인도네시아 수출입 물동량의 결정요인과 한·ASEAN FTA 효과 (Determinants of Seaborne Trading Volume for Indonesia in Korea and Korea-ASEAN FTA Effects)

서지정보

· 발행기관 : 한국해운물류학회
· 수록지 정보 : 해운물류연구 / 32권 / 3호 / 521 ~ 537페이지
· 저자명 : 김창범, 이민희

초록

본고는 한국의 對 인도네시아 수출입 물동량의 결정요인에 대한 모형을 구성한 후 이들 변수들이 수출입 물동량에 미치는 영향의 크기와 방향을 파악하였다. 이와 동시에, 한·ASEAN FTA가 한국의 對 인도네시아 해상물동량에 미치는 효과를 분석하였다. 장기균형식의 추정결과, 세계경기의 호조와 국제유가의 상승은 수출물동량을 증가시키고 국내경기와 세계상품가격의 상승은 수입물동량을 증가시키는 것으로 나타났다. 한편 국제유가의 경우, 수출물동량에는 긍정적인 영향을 미쳤지만 수입물동량에는 부정적인 영향을 미치는 것으로 분석되었다. 다음으로 오차수정모형의 추정결과, 오차수정항이 음(-)의 부호를 가지면서 통계적으로 유의하였으며 수출물동량이 조정속도가 수입물동량보다 훨씬 빠르다는 것을 알 수 있었다. 게다가, 한· ASEAN FTA 효과를 분석한 결과 FTA체결 이후 수출물동량이 수입물동량보다 더 큰 폭으로 증가하였으며, 2013년부터 2014년 기간에는 수출물동량과 수입물동량이 각각 큰 폭으로 증가폭이 둔화되고 감소하는 것으로 나타났다.

영어초록

Economic cooperation between Korea and Indonesia was established on the basis of the effectiveness of Korea-ASEAN FTA in 2007. The ASEAN Economic Community (AEC), launched in 2015 and comprising 10 ASEAN countries, offered an opportunity to expand the cooperation in economy, trade, and logistics. Indonesia has occupied an important position in terms of trade and investments of Korea. Among the ASEAN countries, Indonesia is the 9th export market of Korea as of 2014 (USD 113.6 billion), and the investment scale of Korea in Indonesia has reached 7th place (USD1.13 billion). Particularly, as the Indonesian government is planning the construction and expansion of regional infrastructure for development in the ocean industry, it will serve as an opportunity for Korean companies in terms of investments. Among the ASEAN countries, Indonesia has accounted for 17.8% and 56.7% of the entire export volume and import volume of South Korea as of 2014, respectively. In 2014, the export volume and import volume stood at 9.72 million ton(R/T) and 51.33 million ton(R/T), respectively. However, the annual import and export volume growth is slow. In addition, in 2014, the largest export volume from the ports of Korea to Indonesia were mineral fuels (55.0%), followed by steel products (19.0%) and petrochemical products (6.6%). The largest imports were mineral fuels (90.7%), followed by agricultural products (3.7%) and paper stock/paper products (1.5%). Thus, Indonesia is very important in terms of trade and volume. Despite its importance, the empirical research on Korea’s logistics for Indonesia is insufficient. In such a context, this paper aims to identify the determinants of Korea’s import and export trade volume for Indonesia and analyze the effects of Korea-ASEAN FTA on the country’s seaborne trading volume for Indonesia. The empirical results are as follows. First, the result suggests that a 10% increase in global economy activity (GEA) and the world petroleum price (WPP) increase the export trade volume by 26.6% and 4.70% respectively. This result emphasizes the important role of GEA in increasing export trade volume to Indonesia in Korea. The relative real effective exchange rates (REER) variable has negative and significant impact on export trade volume, where a 10% increase in the REER decreases export trade volume by 15.8%. Second, the result suggests that a 10% increase in Korean economy activity (KEA) increase the import trade volume by 16.7%. The WCP variable has positive and significant impact on import trade volume, where a 10% increase in the WCP increases import trade volume by 2.56%. Whereas, the world petroleum price (WPP) variable has negative and significant impact on import trade volume, where a 10% increase in the WPP decreases import trade volume by 1.22%. Moreover, in absolute terms, the FTA analysis result indicates the export volume was larger than import volume after the FTA and the growth rate of both imports and exports significantly reduced between 2013 and 2014.

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