North Korea’s Denuclearization at the Crossroads

서지정보

· 발행기관 : 한중사회과학학회
· 수록지 정보 : 한중사회과학연구 / 21권 / 1호 / 249 ~ 271페이지
· 저자명 : 이병철

초록

This study investigates the structural roles of satisfaction, value, trust, and firm performance on switching costs, particularly in the context of Korean exporters to China.
Specially, our study focuses on the selection of the optimal model using alternative models such as direct, performance, trust-oriented, and research models. We use a total of 329 responses to analyse alternative models.
North Korean nuclear weapons have become the center of politics in South Korea. For more than thirty years since the 1992 Joint Statement on the Denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula, the nuclear forces of North Korea were fundamental to the strategic competition between South and North Koreas. Until most recently, serious people even debated whether complete nuclear abolition in North Korea could be achieved, in particular since the summit meetings between Donald Trump of the U.S. and Kim Jong-un of North Korea. It is now becoming clear, however, that the denuclearization of North Korea must be much harder than people expect, essentially because nuclear weapons remain the ultimate instrument of keeping the Kim regime safe. Over time, the North Korean nuclear arsenal appears to be aiming directly at the United States, while posing serious threats to the security of the U.S. In the event of some serious military conflicts in East Asia, there is a real risk of nuclear use. Now it’s only a matter of time, according to the North Korean state media, before the communist regime in Pyongyang will become militarily and economically prosperous in the future. Most recently, during a nighttime military parade in Pyongyang on October 10, 2020, North Korea displayed what appeared to be its largest intercontinental ballistic missile ever. This poured cold water on the high hopes that a diplomatic solution to the protracted North Korean nuclear crisis has been on the horizon in wake of the historic summit meetings in Singapore (2018) and Hanoi (2019). In addition, intermittent dialogues between South and North Koreas are neither new nor unique to the stalled negotiations over the denuclearization of North Korea. The denuclearization of the peninsula is the final frontier to end the Cold War and would be a paramount move to establish a geographical area free from nuclear weapons in the region.
The potential benefits in struggling to achieve this gigantic goal far outweigh the challenges involved. But one of the primary obstacles to deterring North Korea from advancing its nuclear weapons program is a lack of trust between North Korea and the U.S. Washington and Pyongyang (South Korea and China included, if necessary) should reach an agreement on the definition of ‘denuclearization’ and intended goals of the denuclearization; the backing and support for its realization is a critical step to ensure security and promote peace and stability in the peninsula and beyond.

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