The Intelligent Are Full of Doubt: Why Probabilistic Uncertain Advice is Evaluated More Highly than Certain Advice

서지정보

· 발행기관 : 한국마케팅학회
· 수록지 정보 : 마케팅연구 / 37권 / 3호 / 1 ~ 26페이지
· 저자명 : 고민정, 박기완

초록

This research examines why people prefer probabilistic uncertain advice over certain advice when the decision domain is highly uncertain. Across four studies, the current research finds that when the decision domain is ambiguous, probabilistic uncertain advice leads people to infer that the adviser has considered the alternative outcomes, thus improving the evaluations of the advice. When there are a large (vs. small) number of outcomes, the positive effect of probabilistic uncertain advice on credibility disappears, and alternative explanations, such as the precision effect and perceived uniqueness, do not explain the positive effect of uncertainty. The paper outlines the theoretical implications for the literature on probabilistic forecasting and on the positive effect of expressing uncertainty and provides practical implications for advisers on how to communicate their predictions to gain trust and credibility. The current research is expected to set the stage for meaningful future studies on probabilistic and uncertain advice.

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