공적분·벡터오차수정모형을 활용한 벙커유 가격의 장기균형 수렴에 관한 실증분석 (An Empirical Analysis on the Long-term Balance of Bunker Oil Prices Using the Co-integration Model and Vector Error Correction Model)

서지정보

· 발행기관 : 한국무역학회
· 수록지 정보 : 무역학회지 / 44권 / 1호 / 75 ~ 86페이지
· 저자명 : 안영균, 이민규

초록

and Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). For this purpose, we use data from Clarkson and the analysis results show 17.6% decrease in bunker oil price when the amount of crude oil production increases at 1.0%, 10.3% increase in bunker oil price when the seaborne trade volume increases at 1.0%, 1.0% decrease in bunker oil price when total volume of vessels increases at 1.0%, and 0.003% increase in bunker oil price when 1.0% increase in world GDP, respectively.
This study is meaningful in that this study estimates the speed of convergence to long-term equilibrium and identifies the price adjust mechanism which naturally exists in bunker oil market.
And it is expected that the future study can provide statistically more meaningful econometric results if it can obtain data during more long-periods and use more various kinds of explanatory variables.

영어초록

and Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). For this purpose, we use data from Clarkson and the analysis results show 17.6% decrease in bunker oil price when the amount of crude oil production increases at 1.0%, 10.3% increase in bunker oil price when the seaborne trade volume increases at 1.0%, 1.0% decrease in bunker oil price when total volume of vessels increases at 1.0%, and 0.003% increase in bunker oil price when 1.0% increase in world GDP, respectively.
This study is meaningful in that this study estimates the speed of convergence to long-term equilibrium and identifies the price adjust mechanism which naturally exists in bunker oil market.
And it is expected that the future study can provide statistically more meaningful econometric results if it can obtain data during more long-periods and use more various kinds of explanatory variables.

참고자료

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