북핵문제가 남북관계 및 대선정국에 미치는 영향 (The Effect Extended North-South Korean Relations and Presidential Election by North Korean Nuclear Problem)

서지정보

· 발행기관 : 사단법인 한국평화연구학회
· 수록지 정보 : 평화학연구 / 8권 / 1호 / 83 ~ 104페이지
· 저자명 : 김동규

초록

북한의 장거리 미사일(장사포)과 핵무기의 개발은 종래의 한반도에 군사적, 정치적인 역학관계는 물론이고 동북아의 국제적인 역학관계를 근본적으로 바꾸어 버리는 사건이었다. 그동안 한반도의 비핵화를 전제로 남북관계를 설정하고 소위 햇볕정책의 기조로 대북정책을 취해오던 남한정부로서는 망연자실할 사건이라고 하겠다.
본론에서는 최근의 북핵문제를 두고 과연 우리들은 이러한 난국의 극복방안으로 어떠한 길이 있는지를 알아보기 위하여 우선 북한정권의 본질과 성격부터 고찰한 다음에 주변 4강국들의 대북정책에 대한 북한정권의 반응을 시나리오별로 예측하였다. 그리고 북한의 김정일 정권은 북핵문제를 당장 다가오는 남한의 대선정국에 어떻게 이용할 것인가에 대한 것도 몇 가지의 사례를 중심으로 살펴본 것이다.
북한정권은 남한의 차기정권이 한나라당으로 바뀌는 것만은 어떻게 해서라도 막아야만 된다는 전제하에 남북한 정상회담과 북핵을 이용하여 여러 가지 상황에 따라 다양한 방법으로 문제를 야기시켜 대선정국의 변화를 시도할 것이며 이것은 매우 우려되는 일이라고 본다. 문제는 북한정권은 남한을 무시하고 오로지 미국과만 상대하고 있기에 남한정부가 북핵에 관여하여 끼칠 수 있는 영향력은 극히 적다는데 있다. 더구나 최근 들어 미국의 부시 정권은 국내외의 정치적인 입지변화로 강경노선에서 유화노선으로 급선회하고 있어 한국의 대북정책은 복잡해지고 있다고 하겠다.
한마디로 요약하여 김정일은 어떠한 경우라도 핵무기 개발을 근본적으로 포기하지 않을 것이라는 예측이 필자의 주장이며 결국 국제사회로부터 ‘핵보유국’으로 인정받기를 최종목표로 삼고 있다고 본다. 따라서 그동안과 앞으로의 베이징에서의 6자회담도 목표도달까지의 시간벌기라는 전술의 일환으로 본다. 이러한 조건들과 예측되는 상황 하에서는 당분간 당근 보다는 채찍이 사태의 악화를 도리어 한반도의 평화구축에 더 효과적이라고 본다.

영어초록

This paper aim for find out the purpose of North Korean nuclear bomb program.
Recently, in spite of U.S.A. has been against the program, North Korea developed it and the 1st nuclear testing.
North Korean nuclear weapons will give a serious results between South and North Korean relations. By these view-point, how it influence upon Korean unification policy and South Korean presidential election in this year.
To understand it fundamentally, we have to definite the nature of North Korean characters and Kim Jong-Il personality. That is to say, North Korean government can say that is a kind of anachronistic feudal lord state as the Yi dynasty kingdom, chauvinistic seclusionism, falsehood and hypocritical ideology, cinema-political ruling by Kim Jong-Il, human remolding personality to struggle against American and Japanese with violence and hate passion, militarism alike Japan in 1940.
Nowadays North Korean people was transformed into a robot or remote-control machine by Kim Il-Sung and Kim Jong-Il. They has been chased to have nuclear bomb only for long time. Since the Korean War, the North Korean garrison-state model called for maintenance of a million-men army and they has been spending over 30% of its government expenditures on the excessive military manpower.
Anyways what is the way we have to do overcome the emergent is "an eye for an eye, a tooth for a tooth, a foot for a foot" I believe. Because of North Korean ruling formula is mobster style. But South Korea can not develop any nuclear weapon by the agreement of denuclearization by IAEA. Then we have to take a strategy of indifference to North Korea.
Actually, for a long time South korean policy for North Korean was so called 'Sunshine Policy' believing that it would bring a drastic change to Kim's regime but the carrot was a failure, and the only choice left to us is decide what kind of stick should be used in the future.
In this paper I have proposed many scenarios about how North Korea will be reaction against 4 powerful nations as following;
If U.S.A. take a press North Korea strongly, may be he(Kim Jong-Il) takes hostage South with the nuclear weapon at a time. But U.S.A. take an appeasement policy for him, he will make a try to finished A-bomb trickery.
In the case of Japan takes any kind of scenarios, he will have confront with Japan even make a war because of they are 'cat-and-dog'.
As for China is so serious one to him and if China pressed him he has no option for survival. His power is belong to China almost. Then, this kind scenario is the best one for South Korea. Besides, Russia has not influence on him comparatively.
The case of South Korea, when South Korea approach to stick-policy to him steadily, he will hesitate his aggressive attitude but takes carrot-policy he will makes an attempt to do class struggle war at South Korea.
By the North Korean nuclear problem, how about the impact on South Korean presidential election in this year is so signification factor.
Kim Jong-Il want to success of the ruling-party(Yeulnin Uridang) at the election, if the opposition-party(Hannaradang) takes successful situation he will has strategy that accept an inter-Korean summit meeting suddenly or a terror for the considerable Hannaradang nominator.
Concluding speaking, remarkable pont is that North Korean government is abnormal one and Kim Jong-Il is mal-adjustive personality and trouble-maker to democratic countries. Above all, very important thing is he has no plan to give up his nuclear developing program and he is estimating South Korea as a easy meat.

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