세대별 고용의 성장 탄력성에 관한 연구 (Generational Growth Elasticities of Employment in Korea)

서지정보

· 발행기관 : 한국질서경제학회
· 수록지 정보 : 질서경제저널 / 22권 / 2호 / 53 ~ 78페이지
· 저자명 : 김준

초록

본 논문은 우선 글로벌 금융위기를 전후하여 경제성장과 고용간의 관계를 전체 및 세대별로 분석하였다. 분석 지표로는 고용의 성장 탄력성을 정립하고, 15세 이상 전 연령을 다섯 그룹으로 나누어 호 탄력성을 도출하였다. 다음으로 글로벌 금융위기를 전후하여 전체적으로는 ‘고용 없는 성장’에서 ‘성장 없는 고용’으로 바뀌었지만, 세대별로는 극심한 편차가 나타난 결과의 의미를 해석하였다. 우리나라 고용의 전반적 요인을 분석하고, 청년층의 고용 부진 및 핵심 노동연령층의 고용 악화, 그리고 중․노년층의 고용 호조 등을 분석하였다. 마지막으로 앞의 분석결과를 바탕으로 우리나라 경제의 성장과 고용에 대한 전망을 정책적 시사점과 함께 제시하였다.
본 논문의 분석 결과, 글로벌 금융위기 이후에는 수요와 공급 측면을 아우르는 노동시장의 구조적 변화 등이 전반적인 ‘성장 없는 고용’ 현상에 기여한 사실을 확인할 수 있었다. 청년층의 고용 부진에는 서비스업 비중의 하락, 고학력화로 인한 일자리 미스매치 등이 그 주요 요인으로 작용하였다. 핵심연령층의 고용 악화는 인구학적 요인 외에 기술진보와 글로벌화에 따른 일자리의 양극화, 건설업․제조업의 둔화 등이 큰 영향을 미쳤다. 중․노년층의 고용 호조는 노동시장 체류의 장기화, 정부 재정 일자리 사업의 확대 등에 주로 기인하였다.
경제성장 없이 고용의 증가가 장기적으로 유지되기는 어렵다. ‘성장 없는 고용’은 생산성 하락과 경쟁력 약화로 이어져, 결국 저성장과 함께 고용 흡수력도 떨어지는 ‘고용 없는 저성장’에 직면하게 될 것이다. 올해 세계와 우리나라 경제는 대체로 지난해보다 더 나빠질 것으로 전망된다. 이런 시점에서 고용이 중요한 정책 목표이기는 하지만, 단순히 고용을 유발하기보다는 제조업을 중심으로 지식과 기술 등 인적 자본이 투영된 노동으로 진화할 것이 요구된다. 아울러 앞으로 노동시장의 주요 연령대로 자리 잡게 될 노년층 노동에 대한 본격적인 고민도 필요해 보인다.

영어초록

Both world and Korean economy have changed sharply after the 2008 Global Financial Crisis. The pre-Global Financial Crisis era is an age of ‘jobless growth’, which means that economic growth rate is relatively higher than increase rate of employment. In contrast, the post-Global Financial Crisis era is an age of 'growthless jobs', which means that increase rate of employment is relatively higher than economic growth rate.
This paper investigates the severe difference in generational growth elasticities of employment by making a comparison between the pre-Global Financial Crisis era during 2001∼2007 period and the post-Global Financial Crisis era during 2011∼2017 period in Korea. So it divides total population of aged 15 and over into five groups, which cover age of 15∼29, of 30∼39, of 40∼49, of 50∼59, and of 60 and over. For the purpose, it establishes the arc elasticity of employment to economic growth as an indicator of the relationship between economic growth and employment. It calculates these generational elasticities in total and five groups. It analyses the aspects of the transition from the pre-Global Financial Crisis era to the post-Global Financial Crisis era, and infers the meanings of the severe difference in generational growth elasticities of employment. Finally, based on the findings, this paper provides conclusions and policy implications.
To compare the pre-Global Financial Crisis era with the post-Global Financial Crisis era, the arc elasticity of employment to economic growth is used as an indicator, that is a value of increase rate of employed persons denominated by economic growth rate. If the growth elasticity of employment in the post-Global Financial Crisis era is higher than in the pre-Global Financial Crisis era, we can confirm that there is a change which represents that increase rate of employment has been relatively higher than economic growth rate. On the contrary, if the growth elasticity of employment in the post-Global Financial Crisis era is lower than in the pre-Global Financial Crisis era, we can confirm that there is a change which represents that increase rate of employment has been relatively lower than economic growth rate.
According to the analysis, the case of total labor population reveals a robust change from ‘jobless growth’ to ‘growthless jobs’. However, generational aspects differ severely across the five groups. The first group of aged 15∼29 reveals that the growth elasticity of employment has changed from –0.47 in the pre-Global Financial Crisis era to –0.05 in the post-Global Financial Crisis era. The second group of aged 30∼39 reveals that the elasticity has changed from 0.01 to –0.22. The third group of aged 40∼49 reveals that the elasticity has changed from 0.66 to 0.07. The forth group of aged 50∼59 reveals that the elasticity has changed from 0.97 to 1.35. The fifth group of aged 60 and over reveals that the elasticity has changed from 0.69 to 2.02.
The above outcomes can be summarized as follows. First, the employment of young age population(aged 15∼39) continues to be poor. Second, the employment of prime working-age population(aged 30∼49) has been worsening. Third, the employment of middle and old age population(aged 50 and over) continues to be good.
What are the meanings and implications of these results? For college graduates, initial firm size and contract type matter for later labor performances, showing that the dual structure of labor market, which is centered around firm size and contract type, has a particularly large influence. Earnings at the first or initial job can explain future labor market performances very well. The long-term effects of the first or initial job placement play a key role in the social problem.
Middle-skilled jobs have vanished enormously, while high and low-skilled jobs have increased. Particularly, jobs have been polarized more rapidly in recessions and changed through pushing many middle-skilled prime age workers either into the inter-sector reallocation among high and low-skilled jobs or out of employment.
As the average life span increases, old age population has increased sharply. Therefore old peoples who want to gain jobs have also increased continuously. But a private support method on the elderly employment is minimal, and depending on public financial support from national or local government can not satisfy their rising needs. One of the best policy measures for old age population is to let them stay employed for a longer time. To work longer requires re-designing the lifetime work schedule, and government should tune up life-long education scheme and social insurance system.
‘Growthless jobs’ can never be sustainable. If weak economic growth continues for the time being as expected, employment can not but shrink. As a result, 'growthless jobs' will fall in the trap of 'jobless low-growth' in the end, which means that both economic growth and employment are depressed together. Rapid aging and the fact that baby-boomers already started to retire have raised a doubt about sustainable growth and a possibility of decrease in working age population.
In addition to economic growth, employment is a very important issue. So government and the private sector should provide decent jobs with adequate incomes and stable employment conditions as well as more job opportunities. It is also requested for labor market system to link job seekers to its providers, together with such public rules as higher retirement age and wage peak system.

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