한국의 시도별 장래인구 예측 (The Projection of Future Population for the Regions in South Korea)

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초록

This paper aims to project the future population of Greater-city and Regions for 2010-2070 in South Korea. The projections use four methods which are the time series of population growth, the fertility ＆ mortality ＆ migration factors, location factor, and the growth rate of GRDP. The results of this study are as follows: First, the population of S.Korea is projected to be 5,052 in 2010, 5,256 in 2020, 5,413 in 2030, 5,600 ten thousands in 2050, and the population of Capital Region will grow into 2,636 in 2020, 2,750 in 2030, 2,885 in 2050. Seoul will be 1042, 1049, 1059, Incheon will become 296, 314, 347 respectively, and Gyeonggido will be 1,298 in 2020, 1,387 in 2030, 1,479 in 2050, recording so high growth as 300 over 40 year. Second, the population of the Provincial Regions are projected to very slowly increase in spite of the growth of immigrants into S.Korea, so that Busan is found to be 340 in 2020, 330 in 2030, 324 ten thousands in 2050, and Gwangju will be 152, 157, 163 respectively. Third, total population over 60 year is projected to rise to 12.5 percent until both growing migration population and population distribution rate in regions have convergent trend. The implications of policy have three viewpoint. First, it is needed that policy makers should prepare for the plan of taking in the increase of labor force population, housing demand, elderly population, immigrant population. Second, we also need to perform the efficient policy that decentralizes population in Capital Region and concentrates population in Regions, among which the former needs to control overpopulation and the latter demands the selected and centralized development for efficient land use. Third, the policy also needs to increase the fertility rate with controling the inflowing foreign population.

영어초록

This paper aims to project the future population of Greater-city and Regions for 2010-2070 in South Korea. The projections use four methods which are the time series of population growth, the fertility ＆ mortality ＆ migration factors, location factor, and the growth rate of GRDP. The results of this study are as follows: First, the population of S.Korea is projected to be 5,052 in 2010, 5,256 in 2020, 5,413 in 2030, 5,600 ten thousands in 2050, and the population of Capital Region will grow into 2,636 in 2020, 2,750 in 2030, 2,885 in 2050. Seoul will be 1042, 1049, 1059, Incheon will become 296, 314, 347 respectively, and Gyeonggido will be 1,298 in 2020, 1,387 in 2030, 1,479 in 2050, recording so high growth as 300 over 40 year. Second, the population of the Provincial Regions are projected to very slowly increase in spite of the growth of immigrants into S.Korea, so that Busan is found to be 340 in 2020, 330 in 2030, 324 ten thousands in 2050, and Gwangju will be 152, 157, 163 respectively. Third, total population over 60 year is projected to rise to 12.5 percent until both growing migration population and population distribution rate in regions have convergent trend. The implications of policy have three viewpoint. First, it is needed that policy makers should prepare for the plan of taking in the increase of labor force population, housing demand, elderly population, immigrant population. Second, we also need to perform the efficient policy that decentralizes population in Capital Region and concentrates population in Regions, among which the former needs to control overpopulation and the latter demands the selected and centralized development for efficient land use. Third, the policy also needs to increase the fertility rate with controling the inflowing foreign population.

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