Comparative Analysis of the Exports BL Number by Domestic and major Economic Region

서지정보

· 발행기관 : 아시아.유럽미래학회
· 수록지 정보 : 유라시아연구 / 15권 / 1호 / 63 ~ 79페이지
· 저자명 : 최수호, 최정일

초록

The purpose of this study is to compare the number of BL exports in Korea and the number of BL exports in APEC, OECD, NAFTA, ASEAN, EU and East South Asia. Based on this, we would like to suggest ways to increase Korea’s exports. For this in this study, data on export amount, number of BL export and export weight of Korea were used. In addition, we used the number of BL exports from APEC, OECD, NAFTA, ASEAN, EU and East South Asia. The analysis period of export amount, number of BL export and export weight of Korea was 144 monthly data from January 2006 to December 2017. The analysis period of APEC, OECD, NAFTA, ASEAN, EU and East South Asia used annual data for 16 years from 2002 to 2017.
The results of numerical analysis are as follows. In the descriptive statistics of BL exports number by Korea and each economic zone, the average was 4.249% for EXNUM, 3.911% for APEC, 1.141% for OECD, 3.070% for NAFTA, 5.471% for ASEAN, 1.764% for EU and 4.014% for ESASIA. ASEAN has an average of 5.471% and a standard deviation of 13.921, showing the highest rate of increase and high volatility. In the correlation of each indicator, the number of BL exports shows a high correlation coefficient in the order of APEC (0.963), EU (0.569), OECD (0.559) and NAFTA (0.512). ACEAN has the highest correlation coefficient of 0.968 with ESASIA. In regression analysis by each economic region, coefficient is APEC 0.856 but remaining indicators are almost irrelevant on the BL export number of dependent variable. The adjusted R-squared was calculated as 0.596, and the change of EXNUM in the regression model shows the explanatory power of 59.6%. OECD was statistically significant at t-statistic and p-value(≤0.1), ASEAN and EAASIA at t-statistic and p-value(≤0.05). On the other hand, APEC, NAFTA and EU were not statistically significant.
The results of the model analysis are as follows. In the growth rate analysis for each indicator, it is showing a high rate of increase in the following order : ASEAN 225%, EXNUM 209%, APEC 198%, ESASIA 196%, NAFTA 169%, EU 140% and OECD 128%. The growth rates of ASEAN, APEC and ESASIA are relatively higher than those of NAFTA, EU and OECD. Therefore, we need to continuously increase exports to ASEAN, APEC and ESASIA. The interest in NAFTA, EU and OECD should continue to be raised. At the annual rate of change for each indicator, ASEAN fluctuations are the largest, showing a variation of between -20% and 40%, followed by APEC and ESASIA as a whole. The growth rate distribution chart for each indicator shows the high frequency in the next section : EXNUM for 0%～8%, APEC for -4%～8%, OECD for 0%～5%, NAFTA for -5%～15%, ASEAN for -10%～20%, EU for 0%～8%, ESASIA for -5%～10%. ASEAN, EXNUM, ESASIA and OECD show high density. In Scatter Charts for each economy sector versus BL export number, distribution of APEC, ASEAN and ESASIA is weakly upward compared with EXNUM. APEC is strong, ASEAN and ESASIA are weakly cooperating with EXNUM.
In conclusion in order to increase Korea’s exports, Exports to ASEAN, APEC, and ESASIA, which showed a high rate of increase during the last 16 years, should be continuously increased. In addition, new markets should be developed in NAFTA, EU and OECD, which have relatively low growth rates. Exports will continue to increase in APEC, EU, OECD, and NAFTA, which are highly correlated with the number of Korean BL exports. Overall, Korea’s exports should have a steady interest in the world, rather than at any particular economic region.

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