경제발전과 사회적 기술: 반부패와 IT의 성장수렴효과 비교분석 (Economic Development and Social Technology: A Comparative Study of the Growth Convergence Effects of Anti-Corruption and IT)

서지정보

· 발행기관 : 한독경상학회
· 수록지 정보 : 경상논총 / 28권 / 2호 / 81 ~ 101페이지
· 저자명 : 강철규, 이재형

초록

68개 국가를 대상으로 1998년부터 2006년까지 성장 과정을 추정한 결과 사회적 기술의 하나인 부패감소의 노력이 없이는 빈국들이 미국과 같은 부국을 따라 잡을 수 있는 추격잠재력이 없음을 발견하였다. 이러한 결과는 5개 국가군(한국을 포함한 27개 OECD 국가들, 6개 아시아 NIEs, 4개 BRICs, 13개 개발도상국가군, 18개 저개발국가군)으로 분류하여 분석해 보아도 마찬가지였다. 성장과정에서 사회적 기술의 하나인 부패와 물리적 기술을 대용한 IT의 효과를 비교분석한 결과 부패의 감소가 IT의 발전보다 더욱 빠른 속도로 기준국 미국을 추격하는데 기여하였다. 한국의 경우 1인당 실질소득의 증가율과 반부패지수의 증가율은 안정적인 정의 관계를 보여주고 있는 반면에, 1인당 실질소득의 증가율과 IT의 증가율은 안정적인 정의 관계를 보여주고 있지 않다. 이는 선진국 진입 초기에 있는 한국이 OECD 선진국들을 추격하기 위해 IT의 발전도 중요하지만 반부패노력을 지속적으로 강화해야 함을 시사한다.

영어초록

In this paper, we classify 68 countries into five groups (OECD, Asia NIEs, BRICs, Developing countries, Underdeveloped countries) during 1998~2006. We estimate the effect of each of anti-corruption and IT (internet users per 100 people) on per capita real gross domestic product (GDP) converted into purchasing power parities (PPPs). We found that reducing corruption in a country would raise per capita real GDP in each of five groups. We also found that IT is positively associated with per capita real GDP in all countries.
We then compare the effect of each of anti-corruption (a component of social technology) and IT (a proxy for physical technology) on growth convergence. We consider conditional convergence in terms of initial conditions, FDI inflows, the balance of current account, and human capital such as health and education.
In model, we have taken the USA as the leader country. If the initial per capita real GDP in relation to that of the leader country is significantly related to the average growth rate of GDP in relation to that of the leader country, we reject the null hypothesis of no convergence, suggesting that a poor economy tends to grow faster than a rich one.
If the initial per capita real GDP in relation to that of the leader country is significantly related to the average growth rate of GDP in relation to that of the leader country after controlling for each of anti-corruption and IT, we reject the null hypothesis of no conditional convergence hypothesis, suggesting that each of anti-corruption and IT has a significant effect on growth convergence. The regression results reveal that the null hypothesis of no convergence is not rejected, whereas the null hypothesis of no conditional convergence is rejected.
It is also evident that anti-corruption plays more important role than IT in accounting for growth convergence. This implies that anti-corruption policies should be strengthened in developing and underdeveloped countries as well as developed countries.
In Korea, anti-corruption is stably and positively related to growth rate of real GDP divided the nominal GDP by the GDP deflator (2000=100) and multiplied it by 100 during the eight year observation period (1998~2005), whereas IT is positively but instably related to growth rate of per capita real GDP. More specifically, anti-corrtion has more elastic than IT on per capita real GDP. In order to increase per capita real income, therefore, the policy maker should strengthen the anti-corruption. An implication of this is that an improvement of social technology such as anti-corruption makes a substantial contribution to economic performance.

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