기업수명주기 하에서 자기자본이익률의 구성요소와 미래수익성 및 가치관련성 (Decomposed Return on Equity, Future Profitability, and Value Relevance over the Firm Life Cycle)

서지정보

· 발행기관 : 한국경영학회
· 수록지 정보 : 경영학연구 / 38권 / 5호 / 1213 ~ 1249페이지
· 저자명 : 권수영, 문보영

초록

본 논문은 자기자본이익률과 DuPont방식에 의해 분해된 자기자본이익률(ROE)의 구성요소가 미래수익성 및 가치관련성에 미치는 영향이 기업수명주기에 따라 달라지는지를 분석한다. 당기수익성 ROE와 그 구성요소인 매출액이익률, 총자산회전률, 재무레버리지 각각에 대해 자연대수를 취하여 도출된 선형관계식를 토대로 기업수명주기 더미를 추가하여 미래수익성에 대한 회귀분석을 수행하였다. 또한 Ohlson(1995) 모형에서 주가 - 순자산 장부가액 비율을 자기자본이익률의 함수형태로 나타낸 식을 이용하여 기업수명주기에 따른 자기자본이익률 및 구성요소의 가치관련성 정도를 분석하였다.
실증분석 결과 당기수익성과 그 구성요소가 미래의 수익성 및 가치관련성을 설명하는 정보유용성이 기업수명주기에 따라다른 것으로 관찰되었다. 성장기에는 당기수익성의 유용성과 가치관련성이 성숙기에 비해 낮은 반면 쇠퇴기에는 오히려높은 것으로 나타났다. 미래수익성을 예측하는데 있어서 성장기에는 총자산회전율이 덜 중요하였으며, 성장기에는 부채비율이, 쇠퇴기에는 매출액이익률이 더욱 중요한 역할을 하였다. 또한 성장기에는 매출액순이익률이 성숙기 대비 가치관련성을 덜 갖는 반면, 쇠퇴기에는 매출액순이익률과 재무레버리지가 성숙기보다 높은 가치관련성을 갖는 것으로 나타났다.
이러한 실증결과는 재무제표분석에서 널리 쓰이는 자기자본이익률과 그 구성요소가 기업수명주기에 따라 예측 유용성이나가치관련성과 관련하여 차별적인 의미를 지니고 있음을 보여준다. 따라서 이익예측과 기업가치평가를 이용하여 각종 투자의사 결정을 함에 있어 당기 수익성의 중요성 정도에 기업의 수명주기 변수를 고려하지 않고 일괄적으로 적용할 수 없음을 시사하고 있다.

영어초록

This study examines the effect of firm life cycle on the relation between current profitability and future profitability. We employ ROE(return on equity) at t as current profitability ROE at t+1 as future profitability. We decompose ROE into three components such as ROS (return on sales), ATO(assets turnover), and LEV(financial leverage). And then we test the impact of firm life cycle on the association between ROE three components and future profitability.
In addition, we investigate whether value relevances of ROE and ROE components vary with firm life cycle. We classify firm life cycle into three categories- growth stage, maturity stage and decline stage.
We analyze 9,036 firm-years over the 1992∼2007 period. Empirical results are summarized as follows: First, the usefulness of ROE and its components in predicting future profitability varies with firm life cycle. Second, the usefulness of current profitability at growth stage is lower than that at maturity stage, while the usefulness at decline stage is higher than that at maturity stage. Third, at growth stage, information about capital investments is less important than that at maturity stage, while information about debt financing is more important than that at maturity stage. Fourth, value relevances of ROE and its components vary with firm life cycle. Fifth, value relevance of ROE is relatively low at growth stage, and relatively high at decline stage. Sixth, ROS is less value relevant at growth stage than at maturity stage, while LEV at growth stage is more value relevant than those at maturity stage. Seventh, ROS and LEV at decline stage all more value relevant than those at maturity stage.
Based on these results, we make the following inferences. First, current profitability at growth stage is viewed as a noisy indicator of future profitability and having less value relevance.
This is because firms at growth stage pursue differentiation strategy so that they spend on advertising and promotions, R&D and capital investments, depressing the level of current income to a great extent. Second, current profitability at decline stage, however, plays more important role in predicting future profits and valuing firms than that at maturity stage. This is because the cost structure at decline stage is quite stable so that current profitability is useful in predicting profits and conducting valuation. Third, information about assets turnover at growth stage is relatively less useful in predicting future profits than that at maturity stage. Managers planning to use resources in efficient ways is far from the realization of profit at growth stage. Fourth, the financial leverage information at decline stage has more usefulness in profit predictability and value relevance than that at maturity stage. It appears that firms’ decision to retire or refinance their existing debts at decline stage is critical in understanding whether they pursue cost saving strategies or enter into new projects.
We can discuss the contribution of this study in terms of five aspects. First, this study extends the usefulness of accounting information to the area previously unexplored by providing empirical evidence that earnings predictability and value relevance of ROE and its components vary with firm life cycle. Second, the results of this study can be used in the classroom to demonstrate the interaction of firm life cycle with competitive strategy, investment/financing policies, and expenditures on R&D and advertising, which is well discussed in the textbook of financial statement analysis. Third, the results of this study can convey important messages to managers, analysts, and regulators. For example, managers at growth stage don’t have to too much worry about the current performance indicator to the extent that market participants put less weight on it in valuing growing firms.
The basic premise of this paper is that the uncertainty about firms and the information asymmetry between managers and market participants differ across firm life cycle. Thus, it may be worthwhile to reexamine many of the accounting issues with the explicit consideration of firm life cycle. Examples include earnings management of IPO firms, accuracy of management forecasts, audit quality and auditor independence, and so on. We believe that firm life cycle will be an important analytical tool in understanding firms’ strategy and interpreting accounting numbers in more refined contexts.

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