Climate Change Analysis to build up an Integrated Agricultural Extension Program on Sustainable Rice Production in Cambodia

서지정보

· 발행기관 : 연세대학교(미래캠퍼스) 빈곤문제국제개발연구원
· 수록지 정보 : 지역발전연구 / 28권 / 2호 / 1 ~ 36페이지
· 저자명 : 주영규, 이윤호, Islam Hassan Ibrahim Hassan Sa

초록

The fluctuation in climate regimes of temperature and rainfall is a leading cause of impact on rain-fed agricultural systems overall the world. This study investigates the impact of temperature and rainfall changes on rice productivity based on long term historical data of the average rainfall and temperature in Cambodia from 1901 to 2014. Additionally, the temporal dynamics of metrological variables were determined in the context of climate change to examine the rice productivity data from 1961 to 2015. The study mainly targeted exploring, describing, and analyzing the time series data of the temperature, rainfall, and rice productivity to estimate the correlation and regression between the temperature and rainfall as predictor variables and the rice productivity as a dependent variable. The results of the time trends revealed that there are significant increases in trends of Rice growth-season Temperature Mean (RTM) and Rice growth-season Rainfall Mean (RRM) along the investigated 115-year period of the months between July and November in the years of 1901- 2015. The rice productivity also showed a similar trend along the 55-year period of 1961- 2015. The results showed that RTM and rice productivity had a significant positive regression, whereas, the RRM did not show significant correlation with rice productivity in 55-year data. Afterwards, based on the long-term analysis of climate change impact on rice productivity with practical experiences from Egyptian and Korean Agricultural Extension Research Institute, an Integrated Agricultural Extension Program (IAEP) was proposed on sustainable rice production for farmers in Cambodia.

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