이중차분법에 의한 도시재생사업의 아파트 가격에 미치는 영향 분석 - 서울시 수유1동과 수유2동의 비교 - (The Impact of Urban Regeneration Projects on Apartment Prices of the Target and Neighboring Areas –Targeting Suyu 1, 2 Dongs, Seoul, Korea –)

서지정보

· 발행기관 : 국토지리학회
· 수록지 정보 : 국토지리학회지 / 54권 / 2호 / 151 ~ 163페이지
· 저자명 : 박대근, 김흥순

초록

본연구는정책평가방법의하나인이중차분법을이용하여도시재생사업선정이대상지역과인근지역에위치한아파트가격에미치는영향을분석하였다. 연구의공간적범위는2017년2월에‘도시재생사업대상지역’으로선정된‘수유1동’과비교지역인인근의‘수유2동’으로선정하였다. 자료는아파트실거래가격을분석에사용하였다. 분석결과, 수유1동은사업선정이후의가격이선정이전시점의가격보다4.7%p 상승하는효과가있는것으로분석되었고, 비교지역인수유2동과비교한분석결과에서도총1.1%p~1.2%p 상승효과가있는것으로나타났다. 이를통해도시재생사업선정이대상및인근지역아파트가격에긍정적인효과를미치는것을확인하였다. 다만부동산가격이지역적특성에따라다르게나타나기때문에도시재생사업선정에의한과도한기대심리에의존하여사업을추진하기보다는사업선정이후체계적인정비및추진전략이필요하며, 사업시행과정상에서도심도있는평가및검토가필요할것으로판단된다.

영어초록

This study analyzes the impact of the selection of urban regeneration projects on apartment prices located in thetarget and nearby areas by using the difference-in-difference method, one of the policy evaluation methods. The target areas ofthe study are ‘Suyu 1-dong’ selected as ‘Urban Regeneration Area’ in February 2017 and ‘Suyu 2-dong’ which is a comparativearea. The actual apartment price is used for the analysis. According to the analysis, after the selection of the project, the priceof the Suyu 1 dong is analyzed to have an effect of 4.7%p higher than the price before the selection, and the analysis resultcompared to Suyu 2 dong, the comparative area shows a total increase of 1.1%p to 1.2%p. This implies a positive effect on theprices of apartments in the target and nearby areas. However, since real estate prices vary depending on regional characteristics,it suggests that the project needs to be evaluated or reviewed in depth in the process of implementing the project in accordancewith the systematic development and implementation strategy after the selection of the project, rather than relying on excessiveexpectations from the selection of urban regeneration projects.

참고자료

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