시진핑 시기 대중동 외교의 약진과 한계 (Advances and Limits of China's Foreign Policy Toward the Middle East Under Xi Jinping)

서지정보

· 발행기관 : 부산대학교 중국전략연구소
· 수록지 정보 : Journal of China Studies / 27권 / 3호 / 165 ~ 190페이지
· 저자명 : 이문한, 김지운

초록

The strategic competition between the United States and China is a key variable influencing international relations today. This bilateral competition has been waged in many regions around the world including the Middle East, which neither the U.S. and nor China can ignore from their respective geopolitical and economic perspectives. In recent years, China has put more weight on the region as a critical energy supplier to sustain its economic growth, as well as a major target of the Belt and Road Initiative, a flagship project of Xi Jinping. Apparently, by contrast, the U.S. has conferred less value on the region due to its shale revolution and fatigue from protracted local conflicts and wars. The different approaches towards the Middle East by the two superpowers have produced speculation that China will expand its influence and ultimately challenge U.S. hegemony in the region. Actually, China has become a chief export partner for the Middle East and has consolidated its mutual relations with the regional states through economic cooperation. Moreover, as a recent case where it facilitated rapprochement between Saudi Arabia and Iran demonstrates, it seems to be increasingly exerting its diplomatic sway in the region. However, it is not likely that China will challenge U.S. hegemony in the Middle East considering its weak willingness and insufficient capacity for that matter. China has mainly focused on the economic interests it could gain from the region, while being reluctant to get politically or militarily involved in complex regional issues. In other words, China has been rather opportunistic to get a “free ride” on the regional stability the U.S. provides and pursue its economic benefits in a secure environment. Meanwhile, China's lack of willingness to challenge U.S. hegemony is not simply based on its calculation to reduce its costs and maximize its benefits. It also comes from the stark reality that China’s military power in the region is substantially smaller than that of the U.S. China is aware that the military dominance of the U.S. does not simply lead to the country’s regional hegemony but could also lead to an effective blockage of China’s vital shipping lanes in the region when the two countries fall into fierce competition. Considering the above, it is an exaggeration to say that China will be offensive and attempt to challenge the hegemonic status of the U.S. in the Middle East in the near future.

영어초록

The strategic competition between the United States and China is a key variable influencing international relations today. This bilateral competition has been waged in many regions around the world including the Middle East, which neither the U.S. and nor China can ignore from their respective geopolitical and economic perspectives. In recent years, China has put more weight on the region as a critical energy supplier to sustain its economic growth, as well as a major target of the Belt and Road Initiative, a flagship project of Xi Jinping. Apparently, by contrast, the U.S. has conferred less value on the region due to its shale revolution and fatigue from protracted local conflicts and wars. The different approaches towards the Middle East by the two superpowers have produced speculation that China will expand its influence and ultimately challenge U.S. hegemony in the region. Actually, China has become a chief export partner for the Middle East and has consolidated its mutual relations with the regional states through economic cooperation. Moreover, as a recent case where it facilitated rapprochement between Saudi Arabia and Iran demonstrates, it seems to be increasingly exerting its diplomatic sway in the region. However, it is not likely that China will challenge U.S. hegemony in the Middle East considering its weak willingness and insufficient capacity for that matter. China has mainly focused on the economic interests it could gain from the region, while being reluctant to get politically or militarily involved in complex regional issues. In other words, China has been rather opportunistic to get a “free ride” on the regional stability the U.S. provides and pursue its economic benefits in a secure environment. Meanwhile, China's lack of willingness to challenge U.S. hegemony is not simply based on its calculation to reduce its costs and maximize its benefits. It also comes from the stark reality that China’s military power in the region is substantially smaller than that of the U.S. China is aware that the military dominance of the U.S. does not simply lead to the country’s regional hegemony but could also lead to an effective blockage of China’s vital shipping lanes in the region when the two countries fall into fierce competition. Considering the above, it is an exaggeration to say that China will be offensive and attempt to challenge the hegemonic status of the U.S. in the Middle East in the near future.

참고자료

· 없음