Intensity Change of Tropical Cyclones over the Western North Pacific with Respect to the RSMC-JTWC Comparison

서지정보

· 발행기관 : 건국대학교 기후연구소
· 수록지 정보 : 기후연구 / 6권 / 1호 / 1 ~ 22페이지
· 저자명 : 백은희, 권혁조, 이윤제, 이승훈, 김찬수, 차은정

초록

This paper reexamines the interannual intensity change of tropical cyclone (TC) over the western North Pacific. Analyses are done for the annual extreme intensity and the average intensity of the five strongest typhoons based on the best track data issued from the RSMC (Regional Specialized Meteorological Center) Tokyo and the JTWC (Joint Typhoon Warning Center). Trends over the last 30+ years in one data set are nearly opposite in another. Specifically, the TC intensity tends to increase with the years in the JTWC data, whereas the opposite is found in the RSMC data.
Realizing that one data set shows a significant statistical difference from the other, a homogenization process has been applied to the original data so that comparisons of the two data sets and the trend analyses become more meaningful than those with solely the original data. With the homogenized data, we present some cautious conclusions regarding the TC intensity changes over the western North Pacific. The annual extreme TC intensity has been decreasing, while the strong TCs have become stronger over the years. For TCs entering the KMA emergency area and directly hitting Korea, we are hesitant to make any conclusions because the corresponding area is small so that the number of TCs entering the area each year is too small to have any statistically significant implications.

참고자료

· 없음