독자적 억제전략이 해답: 북한 3차 핵실험에 대한 10문 10답 (Enhancing Deterrence Capabilities is the Answer:Ten Questions on the North Korean Nuclear Test)

서지정보

· 발행기관 : 신아시아연구소
· 수록지 정보 : 신아세아 / 20권 / 1호 / 43 ~ 67페이지
· 저자명 : 김희상

초록

To United States, China or other nations in the world, North Korea nuclear issue might be regarded as one of mere international security problems, somewhat headachy one, but to us, it is just the issue of life or death. Moreover there seems to be no perfect countermeasure to solve NK’s nuclear threat to us in fact, excepting its dismantlement. If the day comes when NK is recognized as one of the nuclear powers in the international community, our preponderant national power over NK today would be useless, and Republic of Korea would become a strategic pigmy all of a sudden, therefore the possibility of being dragged gradually and pushed to cross the threshold of communization seems high. Though the peace maintains, the peace would be no more than a slavery one.
However the dismantlement of NK nuclear appears far from easy. NK’s enforcement of third nuclear test amongst strong international sanctions proves that NK’s will to posses nuclear is strong enough for international community to crush down. It seems doubtful whether recent UNSCR 2094, which contains unprecedented high level sanctions, would work feasibly to dismantle NK nuclear. Russia and Japan, member states of so-called six party talks seem to have little interest and no influence, and US tries to solve through China who pays more attention to protect NK regime rather than to dismantle NK nuclear. It means that if we go along the way like this, then NK nuclear would eventually become a fait accompli.
If so, what should we do now? The only way for us to take is ‘free unification of Korean Peninsula’, as pointed out by the former Deputy Secretary of State Armitage on his ‘2nd Report’ dated February 2007, and as widely shared by many experts. For us today whether willing or not, there is no other way but to suspend ‘the deactivation of CFC’ firstly, set the national prepared posture against NK’s various complex provocations, deter and respond to them properly, and move up the free unification to our best.
For this end, above all, we need to encompass neighboring Big Fours, especially ‘ROK-US alliance’ and “ROK-China relationship” together. Fortunately when we see the recent situations in China and US, it seems to be viable. Even NK’s playing the reckless ‘nuclear game’, according as we handle it, is likely to work and help the viability raised up. Moreover it is said that today’s NK in fact is reaching at the limit point of regime existence. As we see through the realities in NK, lead the South-North relationship, get the mind of North populace, and make every effort for the goal of ‘free unification’, then the chance will surely come before long. So far, at least it seems clear that the future of Korean peninsula depends on our will and vision.

영어초록

To United States, China or other nations in the world, North Korea nuclear issue might be regarded as one of mere international security problems, somewhat headachy one, but to us, it is just the issue of life or death. Moreover there seems to be no perfect countermeasure to solve NK’s nuclear threat to us in fact, excepting its dismantlement. If the day comes when NK is recognized as one of the nuclear powers in the international community, our preponderant national power over NK today would be useless, and Republic of Korea would become a strategic pigmy all of a sudden, therefore the possibility of being dragged gradually and pushed to cross the threshold of communization seems high. Though the peace maintains, the peace would be no more than a slavery one.
However the dismantlement of NK nuclear appears far from easy. NK’s enforcement of third nuclear test amongst strong international sanctions proves that NK’s will to posses nuclear is strong enough for international community to crush down. It seems doubtful whether recent UNSCR 2094, which contains unprecedented high level sanctions, would work feasibly to dismantle NK nuclear. Russia and Japan, member states of so-called six party talks seem to have little interest and no influence, and US tries to solve through China who pays more attention to protect NK regime rather than to dismantle NK nuclear. It means that if we go along the way like this, then NK nuclear would eventually become a fait accompli.
If so, what should we do now? The only way for us to take is ‘free unification of Korean Peninsula’, as pointed out by the former Deputy Secretary of State Armitage on his ‘2nd Report’ dated February 2007, and as widely shared by many experts. For us today whether willing or not, there is no other way but to suspend ‘the deactivation of CFC’ firstly, set the national prepared posture against NK’s various complex provocations, deter and respond to them properly, and move up the free unification to our best.
For this end, above all, we need to encompass neighboring Big Fours, especially ‘ROK-US alliance’ and “ROK-China relationship” together. Fortunately when we see the recent situations in China and US, it seems to be viable. Even NK’s playing the reckless ‘nuclear game’, according as we handle it, is likely to work and help the viability raised up. Moreover it is said that today’s NK in fact is reaching at the limit point of regime existence. As we see through the realities in NK, lead the South-North relationship, get the mind of North populace, and make every effort for the goal of ‘free unification’, then the chance will surely come before long. So far, at least it seems clear that the future of Korean peninsula depends on our will and vision.

참고자료

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