기후변화시나리오 다중모형 앙상블에 따른 논 질소 유출 부하량 변동 및 불확실성 평가 (Evaluating Changes and Uncertainty of Nitrogen Load from Rice Paddy according to the Climate Change Scenario Multi-Model Ensemble)

서지정보

· 발행기관 : 한국농공학회
· 수록지 정보 : 한국농공학회논문집 / 62권 / 5호 / 47 ~ 62페이지
· 저자명 : 최순군, 정재학, 엽소진, 김민욱, 김진호, 김민경

초록

Rice paddy accounts for approximately 52.5% of all farmlands in South Korea, and it is closely related to the water environment. Climate change isexpected to affect not only agricultural productivity also the water and the nutrient circulation. Therefore this study was aimed to evaluate changes ofnitrogen load from rice paddy considering climate change scenario uncertainty. APEX-Paddy model which reflect rice paddy environment by modifyingAPEX (Agricultural Policy and Environmental eXtender) model was used. Using the AIMS (APCC Integrated Modeling Solution) offered by the APECClimate Center, bias correction was conducted for 9 GCMs using non-parametric quantile mapping. Bias corrected climate change scenarios were appliedto the APEX-Paddy model. The changes and uncertainty in runoff and nitrogen load were evaluated using multi-model ensemble. Paddy runoff showeda change of 23.1% for RCP4.5 scenario and 45.5% for RCP8.5 scenario compared the 2085s (2071 to 2100) against the base period (1976 to 2005).
The nitrogen load was found to be increased as 43.9% for RCP4.5 scenario and 76.0% for RCP8.5 scenario. The uncertainty analysis showed that theannual standard deviation of nitrogen loads increased in the future, and the maximum entropy indicated an increasing tendency. And Duncan’s analysisshowed significant differences among GCMs as the future progressed. The result of this study seems to be used as a basis for mid- and long-termpolicies for water resources and water system environment considering climate change.

영어초록

Rice paddy accounts for approximately 52.5% of all farmlands in South Korea, and it is closely related to the water environment. Climate change isexpected to affect not only agricultural productivity also the water and the nutrient circulation. Therefore this study was aimed to evaluate changes ofnitrogen load from rice paddy considering climate change scenario uncertainty. APEX-Paddy model which reflect rice paddy environment by modifyingAPEX (Agricultural Policy and Environmental eXtender) model was used. Using the AIMS (APCC Integrated Modeling Solution) offered by the APECClimate Center, bias correction was conducted for 9 GCMs using non-parametric quantile mapping. Bias corrected climate change scenarios were appliedto the APEX-Paddy model. The changes and uncertainty in runoff and nitrogen load were evaluated using multi-model ensemble. Paddy runoff showeda change of 23.1% for RCP4.5 scenario and 45.5% for RCP8.5 scenario compared the 2085s (2071 to 2100) against the base period (1976 to 2005).
The nitrogen load was found to be increased as 43.9% for RCP4.5 scenario and 76.0% for RCP8.5 scenario. The uncertainty analysis showed that theannual standard deviation of nitrogen loads increased in the future, and the maximum entropy indicated an increasing tendency. And Duncan’s analysisshowed significant differences among GCMs as the future progressed. The result of this study seems to be used as a basis for mid- and long-termpolicies for water resources and water system environment considering climate change.

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