비통념적 시각에서 본금융안정체계의 구축 (Building Financial Stability Framework for Korea : a non-conventional view)

서지정보

· 발행기관 : 한국금융학회
· 수록지 정보 : 금융연구 / 27권 / 4호 / 1 ~ 24페이지
· 저자명 : 김경수

초록

글로벌 금융위기는 전통적인 금융안전망에서 사적주체의 최적화가 동반하는 부정적 외부효과를제어하기 위한 거시건전성정책을 포함하는 광범위한 금융안정체계가 구축되는 계기가 되었다.
위기 이전 관심의 대상에서 멀었던 신용순환과 경기순환, 신용순환과 중앙은행의 통화정책 간상호작용은 신용 붐을 평가하고 정책대응을 어렵게 한다. 금융안정체계의 중심에서 자기보험의성격을 가지는 보유외환은 자본유입의 문제가 초래하는 경기순응성에 대처하기에 미흡하며과다한 자본유입을 억제하는 거시건전성정책이 요청된다.
그러나 한편 대외자산에서 부채를차감한 대외순자산의 장기추세가 경상수지흑자기조와 안정적 관계가 성립하지 않는 사실은대외자산이 안전자산에 집중된 외환시스템이 높은 자본이동성과 호환성을 가지기 어렵다는 것을시사한다. 글로벌금융세계의 주변부에 위치한 한국금융에 걸맞은 금융안정체계는 변화하는대내외 여건을 수용할 수 있어야 하며 그 유지비용이 과다하지 말아야 한다. 금융안정체계가지속가능성과 효율성을 갖추기 위해서는 금융의 발전이 뒷받침되어야 하며 이 때 통화국제화는유용한 잣대가 될 수 있다.

영어초록

Since the global financial crisis the traditional financial safety net has been strengthened and rebuilt as a broader financial stability frame-work. The financial stability framework includes monetary, fiscal and macro-prudential polices as well as micro-prudential policy, crisis management facilities such as LLR, deposit insurance and foreign reserves, and even accounting rules and business compliances. The purpose of imposing hea-vier regulations is to mitigate the cost of the crises even though the crises themselves may not be prevented. In this new regime, instead of benign neglect policy makers are expected to intervene more aggressively.
However, heavier regulations do not come without costs. Further-more, for policy makers the willingness to act is not enough. The ability to act also matters. The interactions between credit and business cycles and between credit cycles and monetary policy make it difficult to assess credit boom and appropriate policy response. For example, based on the historical data it may not be easy for the monetary authority to distinguish bad credit booms from good credit ones. Another example is that the in-terest rate oriented inflation targeting monetary policy framework, the most evolved monetary policy framework in modern days, makes it very hard to deal with credit boom because inflation targeting monetary policy by its own nature tends to accommodates credit boom.
Since Asian Financial Crisis foreign reserves as a self-insurance have been massively accumulated among emerging market countries. However,foreign reserves turned out to be insufficient to cope with the capital inflows problem. As witnessed during the global financial crisis, in response to massive capital inflows followed by sudden stop and reversal cannot the foreign exchange authority help balancing the fear of floating and the fear of losing reserves. In a country where its currency is not convertible the foreign exchange authority should serve as the insurer of last resort.
Follow-up study has confirmed that there exists two-way causality between foreign reserves and short-term debt, which implies that theprivate optimum level of short term borrowing may exceed the social optimum. In order to curb excessive capital inflows and, consequently, to mitigate the associated capital inflows problem macro-prudential policy such as Pigovian tax on short term debt is required.
However, macro-prudential policy should not be a panacea. In the end, it would be much less effective unless the internationally systema-tically important financial institutions were identified. Furthermore, macro-prudential policy can only influence the size of foreign capital inflows. The inflows of foreign capital shown in the balance of payments are not the only factors contributing the external liabilities position. It also depends on the valuation change such as exchange rate and asset price movements.
As a result, the long-term trend of net external assets defined as external assets minus external liabilities may not hold a stable relationship with current account when the valuation effect is important. In fact, Korea is one of those countries having an unstable relationship and it is not coincidental. Considering that foreign reserves are important part of external assets, the return on external assets tends to be low. Literally,foreign investors are venture capitalists to Korea. The return on liabilities has been much higher than assets, so that net external liabilities have increased when current account has been in surplus.
Unlike advanced countries a significant part of Korea’s external liabilities is denominated in hard currency, which creates strong pro-cyclicality of the valuation effect associated with exchange rate movements.
This pro-cyclicality will not disappear unless liabilities are either fully denominated or hedged in KRW. Considering all the available options the sustainable and efficient financial stability framework should be supported by financial development. Here, currency internationalization can be a useful yardstick.

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