중국의 대북정책·북중관계의 특성과 변화전망 (The Characteristics and Changes of China’s North Korea Policy and North Korea-China Relations)

서지정보

· 발행기관 : 한국외국어대학교 글로벌정치연구소
· 수록지 정보 : 글로벌정치연구 / 11권 / 1호 / 31 ~ 70페이지
· 저자명 : 김강녕

초록

본 논문은 중국의 대북정책·북중관계의 특성과 변화전망을 분석하기 위한 것이다. 이를 위해 여기서는 중국의 대북정책기조, 북중관계의 전개와 특성, 중국의 대북정책 변화요인과 북중관계 전망을 살펴본 후 결론을 도출해 본 것이다. 북중관계는 탈냉전·한중 수교 이후 냉전기와는 크게 달라졌고 북핵·미사일도발과 관련한 중국의 유엔대북제재동참 이후 양국관계는 불편함을 드러내며 소원한듯했다가도 다시 혈맹을 운운하며 양국관계의 틀 속에서 특수관계를 유지해 오고 있다. 중국의 대북정책기조는 크게 ①북한체제의 안정유지, ②북핵문제해결과 한반도 비핵화, ③북한에 대한 영향력 유지·확대, ④북한의 개혁개방 유도이며, 북중관계의 특성은 ①전통적 순망치한·군사동맹관계, ②밀월과 갈등을 오가는 관계, ③비대칭적 상호의존관계, ④당대당관계로 각각 요약해 볼 수 있다. 북중관계는 지속요인과 변화요인에 기초하여 변화해 왔으며 양국관계는 단기적으로는 현상유지 가능성이 높으나 장기적으로는 북핵문제 처리과정에서 전략적으로 변화될 수 있을 것이다. 우리는 중국의 대북 영향력 발휘에 의한 북한변화에 지나친 기대보다는 미·일의 대북정책의 변화를 통한 영향력 확보전략도 함께 모색해 나가야 한다. 우리정부는 한반도·동북아 평화공존정책을 적극 추진하여 양국에 대한 영향력 확대를 모색·추진해 나가야 할 것이다.

영어초록

This paper is aimed at analyzing the characteristics and changes of China’s North Korea and China-North Korea relations. To this end the paper is composed of 6 chapters titled introduction; China’s North Korea policy basis; the development and characteristics of North-South relations; the causes of China’s change in its policy toward North Korea and the prospect of North Korea-China relations; and conclusion. The relationship between North Korea and China has changed significantly since the end of the Cold War, and the relationship between the two countries seems to be strained after China showed its intention to impose sanctions on North Korea over the North’s nuclear weapons and missiles. Nevertheless China’s policy toward North Korea is summarized as ①maintaining stability in the North Korean regime, ②resolving the North Korean nuclear issue and denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula, ③maintaining and expanding its influence over North Korea, and ④inducing North Korea’s reform and openness. And the characteristics of North Korea relations are as follows: ①traditionally the relationship of military alliance that can not be separated; ②the relationship between honeycomb and conflict; ③asymmetrical interdependence; and ④party-to-party relations. The relationship between North and South has changed based on persistent and changing factors, and bilateral relations are likely to maintain the status quo in the short term, but in the long run, they can be strategically changed in the process of dealing with the North Korean nuclear issue. The South Korean government should also seek to seek and implement strategies to secure the North’s influence by changing the policies of the U.S. and Japan rather than relying too much on the North’s change by exercising its influence on the North. The South Korean government should actively push for peaceful coexistence policies on the Korean Peninsula and Northeast Asia to seek to expand its influence on the two countries. We should seek and pursue strategies to gain influence through changes in US policy toward North Korea, rather than excessive expectations of North Korea change by China’s exercise of influence over North Korea. The Korean government should actively promote the peaceful coexistence policies of the Korean peninsula and Northeast Asia and seek to expand its influence on both countries.

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