실무 활용성이 강화된 진보형 시뮬레이션 일정시스템 (Advanced Stochastic Simulation-based Scheduling System (AS3) for Improving Usability in Practice)

서지정보

· 발행기관 : 대한건축학회
· 수록지 정보 : 대한건축학회논문집 구조계 / 25권 / 5호 / 221 ~ 230페이지
· 저자명 : 김율희, 배태현, 이동은

초록

This paper introduces an automated tool named Advanced Stochastic Simulation-based Scheduling system(AS3). The system
automatically integrates CPM schedule data exported from P3 into it and computes the best fit Probability Distribution Functions
(PDFs) of historical activity duration data. In addition, it defines activity durations using the PDFs identified, simulate the
schedule network, and estimates the best fit PDF of project completion times (PCTs). AS3 integrates the automated best fitting
function which identifies the exact distribution of PCTs using the “goodness of fit” principles into existing simulation-based
scheduling method. It improves the reliability of simulation-based scheduling by effectively dealing the uncertainties of the
activity durations rather than existing systems dose. Furthermore, it increases the usability of the schedule data obtained from
commercial CPM softwares, and effectively handle the variability of the PCTs by finding the best fit PDF of PCTs. It is
implemented as an easy-to-use computerized tool programmed in MATLAB. AS3 can make significant contribute to the field of
simulation-based scheduling, because (1) it analyzes the effect of different distributions of activity durations on the distribution of
the PCTs, (2) the reliability obtained by the system is higher than conventional simulation-based scheduling systems, (3)
simplifies the tedious and burdensome process involved in finding the PDFs of the many activity durations, and (4) it is a
welcome replacement for the normality assumptions used by most simulation-based scheduling researchers, and therefore increase
the usability of simulation-based scheduling and generates more accurate results.

영어초록

This paper introduces an automated tool named Advanced Stochastic Simulation-based Scheduling system(AS3). The system
automatically integrates CPM schedule data exported from P3 into it and computes the best fit Probability Distribution Functions
(PDFs) of historical activity duration data. In addition, it defines activity durations using the PDFs identified, simulate the
schedule network, and estimates the best fit PDF of project completion times (PCTs). AS3 integrates the automated best fitting
function which identifies the exact distribution of PCTs using the “goodness of fit” principles into existing simulation-based
scheduling method. It improves the reliability of simulation-based scheduling by effectively dealing the uncertainties of the
activity durations rather than existing systems dose. Furthermore, it increases the usability of the schedule data obtained from
commercial CPM softwares, and effectively handle the variability of the PCTs by finding the best fit PDF of PCTs. It is
implemented as an easy-to-use computerized tool programmed in MATLAB. AS3 can make significant contribute to the field of
simulation-based scheduling, because (1) it analyzes the effect of different distributions of activity durations on the distribution of
the PCTs, (2) the reliability obtained by the system is higher than conventional simulation-based scheduling systems, (3)
simplifies the tedious and burdensome process involved in finding the PDFs of the many activity durations, and (4) it is a
welcome replacement for the normality assumptions used by most simulation-based scheduling researchers, and therefore increase
the usability of simulation-based scheduling and generates more accurate results.

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