동아시아 통화협력과 한국의 대응

소개

경제학-국제금융론
동아시아 통화협력에 대한 제안 중 하나인 `변동환율제+물가안정목표제`가 한국의 상황에 적합한지를 이론적, 실증적 차원에서 분석하고, 한국에 바람지한 통화-환율 제도를 제안함.
변동환율제를 옹호하는 대표적 학자는 T.Willet과 B.Eichengreen의 논문을 기초로 한 survey형식의 논문임.

목차

Ⅰ. Introduction
Ⅱ. Floating regime & Inflation targeting in Korea
1. Should Korea have a fixed exchange rate?
(1) Exchange rate volatility and trade flows
(2) Lessons from Europe

2. ‘Floating regime & inflation targeting’ as an alternative to the fixed regime
(1) Inflation targeting
(2) Inflation targeting in open economy
(3) Inflation targeting in emerging market

3. Is it appropriate for Korea to maintain the floating regime and
inflation targeting?
(1) Openness
(2) Higher pass-through
(3) Difficulty of forecasting inflation
(4) Liability dollarization
(5) Credibility problems
Ⅲ. Conclusion

본문내용

This paper examines the suitability of maintaining `the floating regime & inflation targeting` in Korea as an alternative to the fixed regime or to Asian monetary Union. Section Ⅱ-1 argues that we need to use prudence in adopting fixed regime showing that exchange rate volatility does not have robustly negative effect on trade flows and that even Europe had difficulties in crawling to EMU due to cursory preparations. Section Ⅱ-2 then overviews the features of inflation targeting in open economy and emerging markets in theoretical point of view. In section Ⅱ-3, I argue that the features discussed in section Ⅱ-2 does not make Korea difficult to maintain floating regime and inflation targeting. In conclusion, I take up the position that floating regime and inflation targeting in Korea seems to be appropriate.
Ⅰ. 서 론

아시아 외환위기 이후, 아시아 국가들 환율제도에 대한 논의는 크게 두 가지로 나뉜다. 첫째, 기존의 달러 peg 환율에서 일정 변동 허용폭을 주는 중간형태의 환율제도가 외환위기를 야기하자, 극단적인 고정환율제나 변동환율제로 바꾸는 corner solution이 설득력을 얻었다는 것이다. 둘째, 동아시아 통화협력에 대한 논의가 진행되고 있다. 지역 내 환율 협조가 있을 경우 외환위기의 가능성을 줄일 수 있고, 역내 무역 및 투자를 활성화할 수 있는데다, 유럽에서의 통화협력에 자극을 받았기 때문이다.

참고자료

· Barry Eichengreen, 2002, 『Can Emerging Markets Float? Should They Inflation Target?』, Bank of Brazil working paper series.
· Peter Clark, Natalia Tamirisa, Shang-Jin Wei, 2004, 『Exchange rate volatility and trade flows - some new evidence』, IMF working paper.
· Thomas D. Willett, 2004, 『Assessing Korea`s Post Managed Float』, Bank of Korea workshop reviewed draft 12/04/04.
· Alexander W. Hoffmaister, 2001, 『Inflation Targeting in Korea : An empirical exploration』, IMF staff papers, vol 48, No.2
· Barry Eichengreen, 『The parallel approach to Asian Monetary Integration』
· Tomoko Hayashi, 2003, 『Inflation Targeting and exchange rate policy in Asia : An option after the Asian Currency Crisis and Korea`s case』, JBICI Review No.8.
· 김정식, 2005, 『동아시아 통화협력의 제 구상과 한국의 대응방안』
· 『우리나라의 통화정책』, 2005, 한국은행