아베노믹스의 실패(일본&미국 출구전략) 및 그 후 세계 영향

소개

일본 내 아베노믹스 실패 시나리오와 미국 출구 전략의 영향으로 아베노믹스 실패에 대한 자세한 설명과 분석
그 후 세계 시장이 어떻게 영향을 미쳤는지에 대한 분석

목차

1. Causes of Failure_Domestic reasons
2. Causes of Failure_Exit Strategy
3. Effects on the world economy

본문내용

1. Causes of Failure_Domestic reasons
Out team has chosen the topic of Abenomics, and its prospect in the near future. We picked this topic because this is one of the most important international economic issues, coupled with the exit strategy of the United States. Considering the fact that changing exchange rates have a huge impact on other countries, these international issues should affect Korea in a certain way. Therefore, we believed predicting the future of Abenomics would be crucial for Korea to get prepared for an impact in the future.
Some rationales show that Abenomics will succeed in the near future. However, our team thought in a different way. We believe that Abenomics will fail and that Japan economy will go back to the state of strong yen, and continuing deflation for four reasons; high debt to GDP ratio, structural problem, gap between expectation and reality, and negative effects of weak yen.

<중 략>

On the perspective of Korea, Failing Abenomics can reduce our economic growth rate to 2 percent this year. The possibility of further falling yen is especially a big problem. If deflation continues, and asset market collapses, Japanese stock market can collapse as well. The falling yen affects our economy badly, because our companies can loss their competitiveness. Also collapsing Japanese asset market can cause foreigners to escape from Asian market, and decrease our KOSPI to 1800 level.

참고자료

· 명진호(2013), “아베노믹스, 6개월의 변화”, Trade Focus,
· 김현정(2013), “아베정부 양적완화 정책의 대내외 파급효과”, 한국은행
· 장상식(2013), “우리수출, 엔저에도 괜찮은가?”, Trade Focus (12)
· “일본경제동향”, 2013, KJCF(09)
· 손영환(2013), “일본의 2분기 GDP 실적과 소비세 인상 방침에의 영향”, KCIF(08)
· 박해식(2013), “엔저의 시나리오별 예상경로와 대응전략”, 주요금융이슈
· 김주헌(2013), “엔저가 수출입에 미치는 영향과 시사점”, VIP 리포트(528)