Power Transition Theory: the Self-Perception Variable, implications of the 21st Century, and ROK’s Grand Strategy

소개

It is a popular alternative assertion that power parity and dissatisfaction causes power transition, and this transition is likely to be in form of conflict. However this theory faces many criticisms, as it cannot offer a full explanation of international politics.
The numerous criticisms include arguments such as the difficulties of measuring the important variables such as national power, and the level of satisfaction and dissatisfaction. The CINC index of the COW project is commonly used, but it is not deemed satisfactory in being precise. Also, the problem of ex post facto selection of empirical materials is another commonly criticized part of the theory. In addition, previous studies use a 20-year-cycle to determine the relationship between power transition and war. This is also criticized, because practically anything could happen in the long period of 20 years. Other more fundamental problems would be whether the dissatisfaction variable would be a necessary or a sufficient condition for war, or the question as to when war would occur (before or after the transition), or whether making “war” as the dependent variable instead of mere “conflict” would make this theory anachronistic.

목차

I. Introduction

II. e: Self-Perception

III. Problems of Historical Empirical Materials Used,

IV. Suggestions for ROK Grand Strategy

본문내용

It is a popular alternative assertion that power parity and dissatisfaction causes power transition, and this transition is likely to be in form of conflict. However this theory faces many criticisms, as it cannot offer a full explanation of international politics.
The numerous criticisms include arguments such as the difficulties of measuring the important variables such as national power, and the level of satisfaction and dissatisfaction. The CINC index of the COW project is commonly used, but it is not deemed satisfactory in being precise. Also, the problem of ex post facto selection of empirical materials is another commonly criticized part of the theory. In addition, previous studies use a 20-year-cycle to determine the relationship between power transition and war.

참고자료

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