사계절 황사단기예측모델 UM-ADAM2의 2010년 황사 예측성능 분석 (Performance Analysis of Simulation of Asian Dust Observed in 2010by the all-Season Dust Forecasting Model, UM-ADAM2)

서지정보

· 발행기관 : 한국기상학회
· 수록지 정보 : 대기 / 22권 / 2호 / 245 ~ 257페이지
· 저자명 : 이은희, 김승범, 하종철, 전영신

초록

The Asian dust (Hwangsa) forecasting model, Asian Dust Aerosol Model (ADAM)has been modified by using satelliate monitoring of surface vegetation, which enables to simulate dusts occuring not only in springtime but also for all-year-round period. Coupled with the Unified Model (UM), the operational weather forecasting model at KMA, UM-ADAM2 was implemented for operational dust forecasting since 2010, with an aid of development of Meteorology-Chemistry Interface Processor (MCIP) for usage UM. The performance analysis of the ADAM2 forecast was conducted with PM10 concentrations observed at monitoring sites in the source regions in China and the downstream regions of Korea from March to December in 2010. It was found that the UM-ADAM2 model was able to simulate quite well Hwangsa events observed in spring and wintertime over Korea. In the downstream region of Korea, the starting and ending times of dust events were well-simulated, although the surface PM10concentration was slightly underestimated for some dust events. The general negative bias less than 35 μg m3 in PM10 is found and it is likely to be due to other fine aerosol species which is not considered in ADAM2. It is found that the correlation between observed and forecasted PM10 concentration increases as forecasting time approaches, showing stably high correlation about 0.7 within 36 hr in forecasting time. This suggests the possibility that there is potential for the UM-ADAM2 model to be used as an operational Asian dust forecast model.

영어초록

The Asian dust (Hwangsa) forecasting model, Asian Dust Aerosol Model (ADAM)has been modified by using satelliate monitoring of surface vegetation, which enables to simulate dusts occuring not only in springtime but also for all-year-round period. Coupled with the Unified Model (UM), the operational weather forecasting model at KMA, UM-ADAM2 was implemented for operational dust forecasting since 2010, with an aid of development of Meteorology-Chemistry Interface Processor (MCIP) for usage UM. The performance analysis of the ADAM2 forecast was conducted with PM10 concentrations observed at monitoring sites in the source regions in China and the downstream regions of Korea from March to December in 2010. It was found that the UM-ADAM2 model was able to simulate quite well Hwangsa events observed in spring and wintertime over Korea. In the downstream region of Korea, the starting and ending times of dust events were well-simulated, although the surface PM10concentration was slightly underestimated for some dust events. The general negative bias less than 35 μg m3 in PM10 is found and it is likely to be due to other fine aerosol species which is not considered in ADAM2. It is found that the correlation between observed and forecasted PM10 concentration increases as forecasting time approaches, showing stably high correlation about 0.7 within 36 hr in forecasting time. This suggests the possibility that there is potential for the UM-ADAM2 model to be used as an operational Asian dust forecast model.

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