현업 국지모델기반 2018년 여름철 기상 1호 특별 고층관측자료의 관측 민감도 실험 (Observing Sensitivity Experiment Based on Convective Scale Model for Upper-air Observation Data on GISANG 1 (KMA Research Vessel) in Summer 2018)

서지정보

· 발행기관 : 한국기상학회
· 수록지 정보 : 대기 / 30권 / 1호 / 17 ~ 30페이지
· 저자명 : 최다영, 황윤정, 이용희

초록

KMA performed the special observation program to provide information about severe weather and to monitor typhoon PRAPIROON using the ship which called the Gisang 1 from 29 June 2018 to 4 July 2018 (UTC). For this period, upper-air was observed 21 times with 6 hour intervals using rawinsonde in the Gisang 1. We investigated the impact of upper-air observation data from the Gisang 1 on the performance of the operational convective scale model (we called LDAPS). We conducted two experiments that used all observation data including upper-air observation data from the Gisang 1 (OPER) and without it (EXPR). For a typhoon PRAPIROON case, track forecast error of OPER was lower than EXPR until forecast 24 hours.
The intensity forecast error of OPER for minimum sea level pressure was lower than EXPR until forecast 12 hours. The intensity forecast error of OPER for maximum wind speed was mostly lower than EXPR until forecast 30 hours. OPER showed good performance for typhoon forecast compared with EXPR at the early lead time. Two precipitation cases occurred in the south of the Korean peninsula due to the impact of Changma on 1 July and typhoon on 3 July.
The location of main precipitation band predicted from OPER was closer to observations. As assimilating upper-air data observed in the Gisang 1 to model, it showed positive results in typhoon and precipitation cases.

영어초록

KMA performed the special observation program to provide information about severe weather and to monitor typhoon PRAPIROON using the ship which called the Gisang 1 from 29 June 2018 to 4 July 2018 (UTC). For this period, upper-air was observed 21 times with 6 hour intervals using rawinsonde in the Gisang 1. We investigated the impact of upper-air observation data from the Gisang 1 on the performance of the operational convective scale model (we called LDAPS). We conducted two experiments that used all observation data including upper-air observation data from the Gisang 1 (OPER) and without it (EXPR). For a typhoon PRAPIROON case, track forecast error of OPER was lower than EXPR until forecast 24 hours.
The intensity forecast error of OPER for minimum sea level pressure was lower than EXPR until forecast 12 hours. The intensity forecast error of OPER for maximum wind speed was mostly lower than EXPR until forecast 30 hours. OPER showed good performance for typhoon forecast compared with EXPR at the early lead time. Two precipitation cases occurred in the south of the Korean peninsula due to the impact of Changma on 1 July and typhoon on 3 July.
The location of main precipitation band predicted from OPER was closer to observations. As assimilating upper-air data observed in the Gisang 1 to model, it showed positive results in typhoon and precipitation cases.

참고자료

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