온도 지표에 따른 도시와 농촌의 열사망 위험도 격차 (Difference in Heat-Related Mortality Risk Between Urban and Rural Areas Depending on Temperature Metrics : A Nationwide Time-Series Study in Korea)

서지정보

· 발행기관 : 한국기후변화학회
· 수록지 정보 : 한국기후변화학회지 / 13권 / 6호 / 729 ~ 739페이지
· 저자명 : 강신우, 오지은, 이환희, 김호

초록

Heat impact on human health is a global concern due to climate change which has been accelerating. Recently, previous studies have contended that it is necessary to consider different vulnerabilities to heat by temperature metrics and urbanicity when setting the heat alarming system; however, the current heat alarm system in Korea is based on the maximum temperature solely. Therefore, this study aimed to examine whether the heat-related mortality risks differ by the urban and rural areas with sub-population groups, using two temperature metrics, the daily minimum temperature and the maximum temperature.
We collected 229 nationwide district-level (sigungu) daily time-series data including the minimum temperature, the maximum temperature, and the all-cause mortality during the summer season (June ~ Sep) of the study period (2011 ~ 2017). Using the two-stage time series analysis with a distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM), we estimated heat-mortality risk estimates based on the minimum and maximum temperatures, individually. The risk estimates were pooled with meta-regression by urban and rural area.
The maximum temperature is associated with mortality risk in both urban and rural areas. However, the minimum temperature has a significant impact on mortality only in the urban area. In addition, heat-related mortality risks differed by the sup-population (sex and age group), regions, and temperature metrics.
In conclusion, heat-mortality risk between urban and rural areas differs by temperature metrics and characteristics of sub-populations. The results suggest that more elaborated heat definitions and heat alarming systems should be established to increase the efficiency of the alarming system and address unequal vulnerability to heat.

영어초록

Heat impact on human health is a global concern due to climate change which has been accelerating. Recently, previous studies have contended that it is necessary to consider different vulnerabilities to heat by temperature metrics and urbanicity when setting the heat alarming system; however, the current heat alarm system in Korea is based on the maximum temperature solely. Therefore, this study aimed to examine whether the heat-related mortality risks differ by the urban and rural areas with sub-population groups, using two temperature metrics, the daily minimum temperature and the maximum temperature.
We collected 229 nationwide district-level (sigungu) daily time-series data including the minimum temperature, the maximum temperature, and the all-cause mortality during the summer season (June ~ Sep) of the study period (2011 ~ 2017). Using the two-stage time series analysis with a distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM), we estimated heat-mortality risk estimates based on the minimum and maximum temperatures, individually. The risk estimates were pooled with meta-regression by urban and rural area.
The maximum temperature is associated with mortality risk in both urban and rural areas. However, the minimum temperature has a significant impact on mortality only in the urban area. In addition, heat-related mortality risks differed by the sup-population (sex and age group), regions, and temperature metrics.
In conclusion, heat-mortality risk between urban and rural areas differs by temperature metrics and characteristics of sub-populations. The results suggest that more elaborated heat definitions and heat alarming systems should be established to increase the efficiency of the alarming system and address unequal vulnerability to heat.

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