실거래가지수 연동금리 모기지 도입효과 분석 (An Analysis of Market Price Index-Linked Mortgage Loan Rate)

서지정보

· 발행기관 : 한국부동산분석학회
· 수록지 정보 : 부동산학연구 / 18권 / 2호 / 33 ~ 56페이지
· 저자명 : 이무송, 유정석

초록

This study analyzes the ILM(Market price Index-Linked Mortgage) which links the market price index which reflects the housing market price with the mortgage loan rate. ILM is one of the mortgage risk management measures to which the domestic housing financial market is structurally exposed under the economic mechanism of the negative equilibrium relationship between the mortgage and the house price.
Regarding the ILM adjusted mortgage rate estimation, unlike the preceding studies, the volatility mitigation effect was measured applying the first time lag when the negative equilibrium relationship starts, not the time lag when the negative equilibrium relationship is at a maximum. Also, there is three months time lag between the housing transactions and the market price index publication in Busan, Gwangju and Daejeon where the ILM was most effective. The analysis through the index prediction considering the estimated error still showed the volatility mitigation effect.
According to this study, it was found that the volatility of mortgage loan rate was mitigated without the risk of index prediction and estimated error for the first time lag when the negative equilibrium relationship starts was applied, not the time lag when the negative equilibrium relationship was at a maximum. However, with three months time lag between the housing transactions and the market price index publication, the management complementary measures like the measures to shorten the reporting period to 15~30 days can help reduce risks arising from the index prediction. In addition, since the risk-return trade-off relationship represents the level of borrowers utility, it is questionable that the utility increase of borrowers is an essential precondition for ILM introduction. However, ILM can be applied to the low income area to increase the utility of borrowers and it has more meaning as political adoption in terms of equilibrium and residential welfare.

영어초록

This study analyzes the ILM(Market price Index-Linked Mortgage) which links the market price index which reflects the housing market price with the mortgage loan rate. ILM is one of the mortgage risk management measures to which the domestic housing financial market is structurally exposed under the economic mechanism of the negative equilibrium relationship between the mortgage and the house price.
Regarding the ILM adjusted mortgage rate estimation, unlike the preceding studies, the volatility mitigation effect was measured applying the first time lag when the negative equilibrium relationship starts, not the time lag when the negative equilibrium relationship is at a maximum. Also, there is three months time lag between the housing transactions and the market price index publication in Busan, Gwangju and Daejeon where the ILM was most effective. The analysis through the index prediction considering the estimated error still showed the volatility mitigation effect.
According to this study, it was found that the volatility of mortgage loan rate was mitigated without the risk of index prediction and estimated error for the first time lag when the negative equilibrium relationship starts was applied, not the time lag when the negative equilibrium relationship was at a maximum. However, with three months time lag between the housing transactions and the market price index publication, the management complementary measures like the measures to shorten the reporting period to 15~30 days can help reduce risks arising from the index prediction. In addition, since the risk-return trade-off relationship represents the level of borrowers utility, it is questionable that the utility increase of borrowers is an essential precondition for ILM introduction. However, ILM can be applied to the low income area to increase the utility of borrowers and it has more meaning as political adoption in terms of equilibrium and residential welfare.

참고자료

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