수도권 대기 중 입자상 물질로 인한 건강부담 추정과 불확실성 (Uncertainty and Estimation of Health Burden from Particulate Matter in Seoul Metropolitan Region)

서지정보

· 발행기관 : 한국대기환경학회
· 수록지 정보 : 한국대기환경학회지 / 29권 / 3호 / 275 ~ 286페이지
· 저자명 : 하종식, 문난경

초록

It is well known that exposure to high level of PM (particulate matter) can adversely affect human health. However,little is known about health burden of PM considering the relationship, exposed level of PM, and health level in local communities. And, there is scarcely methodical assessment of uncertainty for application to policies of these assessment results.
The scope of this study is divided into two parts: firstly to estimate the death burden of PM10 (particulate matter less then 10 μm in diameter) in Seoul metropolitan region, and secondly to evaluate potential uncertainties in these estimates.
To estimate the death burden of PM10 in Seoul metropolitan region from 2005~2010, we firstly assessed the relationship between daily mean PM10 and daily death counts in Seoul from 2000~2010, and calculated the death burden of PM10 using BenMAP (Environmental Benefits Mapping and Analysis Program). After that, we identified and characterized uncertainties to substantially influence the results of death burden.
The daily mortality risk was increased 1.000227 times (p-value⁄0.001) associated with 1μg/m3 increase of daily mean PM10 for all ages population, Seoul. And, death burdens of PM10 in Seoul metropolitan region were estimated from 5.51 in 2005 to 5.12 in 2010 per 100,000 people. Finally, we categorized context, model, and input uncertainty and characterized these uncertainties in three dimensions (i.e. location, level, and nature) using uncertainty typology.
In our study, we argue that uncertainties need to be identified, assessed, reported and interpreted in order for assessment results to adequately support decision making, such as the establishment of air quality standards based on health burden of air quality.

영어초록

It is well known that exposure to high level of PM (particulate matter) can adversely affect human health. However,little is known about health burden of PM considering the relationship, exposed level of PM, and health level in local communities. And, there is scarcely methodical assessment of uncertainty for application to policies of these assessment results.
The scope of this study is divided into two parts: firstly to estimate the death burden of PM10 (particulate matter less then 10 μm in diameter) in Seoul metropolitan region, and secondly to evaluate potential uncertainties in these estimates.
To estimate the death burden of PM10 in Seoul metropolitan region from 2005~2010, we firstly assessed the relationship between daily mean PM10 and daily death counts in Seoul from 2000~2010, and calculated the death burden of PM10 using BenMAP (Environmental Benefits Mapping and Analysis Program). After that, we identified and characterized uncertainties to substantially influence the results of death burden.
The daily mortality risk was increased 1.000227 times (p-value⁄0.001) associated with 1μg/m3 increase of daily mean PM10 for all ages population, Seoul. And, death burdens of PM10 in Seoul metropolitan region were estimated from 5.51 in 2005 to 5.12 in 2010 per 100,000 people. Finally, we categorized context, model, and input uncertainty and characterized these uncertainties in three dimensions (i.e. location, level, and nature) using uncertainty typology.
In our study, we argue that uncertainties need to be identified, assessed, reported and interpreted in order for assessment results to adequately support decision making, such as the establishment of air quality standards based on health burden of air quality.

참고자료

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